SpaceX is on track to launch its 30th Starlink mission of 2022 later this morning.
No earlier than (NET) 10:50 am EDT (14:50 UTC) on Thursday, October 20th, a Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to lift off from SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) LC-40 launch pad with 54 internet satellites in tow. Weighing in at 16.75 tons (~36,900 lb), the batch of Starlink V1.5 satellites is just one of a few left before SpaceX completes the second of five ‘shells’ that make up its first constellation.
Targeting Thursday, October 20 for a Falcon 9 launch of 54 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from SLC-40 in Florida → https://t.co/OnCLChqB20
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 19, 2022
Even before today’s Starlink 4-36 launch, more than two-thirds of the 4408 satellites required to complete the constellation are already in orbit and (by all appearances) working as expected. Of the 3131 working satellites in orbit, approximately 2700 are at their operational altitudes and theoretically capable of serving customers back on Earth. Another ~390 satellites are still in the process of climbing to their operational orbits. Once they’re done, SpaceX’s first Starlink constellation will be more than two-thirds complete by every measure.
The constellation is made up of five orbital ‘shells’ – distinct groups of satellites that share a similar orbital inclination (the angle between the satellite’s orbit and Earth’s equator) and altitude. Two of those shells, known as Group 1 and Group 4, contain 3168 satellites or more than two-thirds of the constellation. They’re nearly identical and focus on Earth’s mid-latitudes, where almost every person (and customer) on Earth resides. Both are almost complete: astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell estimates that 1456 of 1584 possible Group 1 satellites are operational. Group 4 is one launch behind, with about 1405 working satellites in orbit.
SpaceX’s first Starlink constellation is made up of five shells or groups.
In addition to Starlink 4-36, SpaceX has one more Starlink launch (4-31) tentatively scheduled in late October. The company’s November manifest is jam-packed with up to five commercial launches, potentially precluding any additional Starlink launches next month. December could be an even more commercially productive month if even a handful of schedules hold. But there’s a chance that SpaceX will find space to complete two more Starlink launches within the next ten weeks, allowing it to nearly complete Shell 4 by the end of the year.
Once Shell 4 is complete, all future launches for SpaceX’s first-generation Starlink constellation will likely be heading to one of three shells with semi-polar or polar inclinations. Group 2, the largest of the remaining shells with a planned 720 satellites, can be launched from any of SpaceX’s three pads. SpaceX has already launched one batch of Group 2 satellites and will need to complete ~13 more launches to finish the shell. Finally, more than half of Group 3’s 348 satellites have already been launched, but SpaceX has yet to start Group 5 (172 satellites).
SpaceX has assigned Falcon 9 B1062 to Starlink 4-36. The booster will be the sixth to launch 10 or more missions. (Richard Angle)
All told, including an allowance for several dozen on-orbit satellite failures over the same period, SpaceX’s first Starlink constellation appears to be approximately 23 launches away from completion. Assuming that SpaceX merely matches its 2022 cadence in 2023, the entire 4408-satellite constellation could be fully operational before the end of next year. If SpaceX can hit its target of 100 total launches in 2023, the first Starlink constellation could be fully operational months before the end of 2023.
Tune in below to watch SpaceX’s 30th Starlink mission and 48th launch of 2022.
Keyword: SpaceX ready for 30th Starlink launch of 2022