Breaking Down the Numbers: NHRA Seeding For Countdown To Championship Absolutely Matters
- Unluckiest Seeds Are 8, 9
- Unlucky Top Fuel Seeds
- Breaking Down the Numbers
- Margin of Victory
- Marathon, Not a Sprint
- Seeding For Countdown To Championship Absolutely Matters, Says NHRA’s Tony Schumacher
- If statistics are reliable indicators, consider Brittany Force (Top Fuel), Robert Hight (Funny Car), Erica Enders (Pro Stock) and Matt Smith (Pro Stock Motorcycle).
- Fourth-seeded Steve Torrence in Top Fuel, on the other hand, should note that no one starting from the fourth seed has ever gone on to win the Top Fuel title.
Predictably, the No. 1 starting spot for the Countdown has produced the most winners
Robert Hight’s unprecedented and one-of-a-kind march from 10th place to the title in 2009 has served as inspiration in all pro classes
Should Shawn Langdon or Doug Kalitta worry? Should Cruz Pedregon or Tim Wilkerson?
How about four-time Top Fuel champ Steve Torrence?
Eight-time NHRA Top Fuel champion Tony Schumacher was counting points unapologetically long before the Countdown to the Championship cutoff race Labor Day weekend at Indianapolis. And he declared that a racer’s starting spot in the Countdown order definitely is significant.
Shawn Langdon is seeded unlucky No. 8 in Top Fuel.
NHRA/National Dragster
“Getting moved up a few spots to start the Countdown does matter. I’ve won championships and I’ve lost championships by less than one round. So don’t kid yourself into thinking that where you start the Countdown doesn’t matter,” Schumacher said.
He will find out this year what can happen when a driver is moved down a couple of spots, too. The sanctioning body fined him $20,000 and penalized him 50 points for mechanical oversights at the August race at Brainerd, Minn. That dropped him from eighth place to 10th for the start of the six-race playoff.
At the close of the so-called regular season, points spreads vanish and the title-eligible drivers are separated by 10-point increments – except the leader, who has a 20-point edge on the No. 2 seed. So everyone is bunched up to begin the Countdown as the Countdown kicks off this weekend with the Pep Boys Nationals at Maple Grove Raceway near Reading, Pa.
So it pays to use every little opportunity to pick up a point or two, no matter how trifling it might seem at the moment. And high placement on the starting grid usually pays off. Across the four pro classes in the Camping World Drag Racing Series, the No. 1-seeded driver has won the championship 25 times – by far the best berth to produce champions.
If statistics remain true, the odds favor Brittany Force (Top Fuel), Robert Hight (Funny Car), Erica Enders (Pro Stock), and Matt Smith this year. They’re the points leaders.
The No. 2 slot has produced two champions in each class but Funny Car. Hight won the second of his three titles in 2017, starting from the No. 2 position. The Nos. 3, 4, and 5 starters have had scattered success, and the sixth and seventh places have spring-boarded a few to championships.
Unluckiest Seeds Are 8, 9
No one in any class has won from either an eighth- or ninth-place launch. So take note, Shawn Langdon and Doug Kalitta in Top Fuel and Cruz Pedregon and Tim Wilkerson in Funny Car. Not superstitious, Pro Stock drivers Camrie Caruso and Matt Hartford? That’s great. How about you, Jerry Savoie and Marc Ingwersen, in the Pro Stock Motorcycle category?
Pedregon isn’t playing numbers games. He said, “Our second season starts now. Throughout my career, I have always finished strong, and I believe we are shaping up to have that happen again this year.”
The numbers 7 has not been lucky to seventh seeds in Top Fuel. Leah Pruett is seeded seventh this year.
NHRA/National Dragster
Unlucky Top Fuel Seeds
No one in Top Fuel has become champion when starting from the fourth, fifth, seventh, or 10th position, either. That would preclude Torrence (No. 4) from earning a fifth consecutive championship and doesn’t help No. 5 Josh Hart, No. 7 Leah Pruett, or No. 10 Schumacher, either.
isn’t intimidated. He said his team has been “bad to the bone for five years, and I think we’ll have something for the Countdown.”
And impersonal stats don’t deter Hart, the impressive sophomore driver, who said following the U.S. Nationals, “We made the Countdown for the first time, and this is just the beginning. I told all my guys in our team meeting this was only my 30th race in my Top Fuel career. I am super- blessed to be doing this, and we want to keep getting better. I am building this team for the long-haul.”
Breaking Down the Numbers
Funny Car’s other “unlucky” starting position is sixth – sorry, JR Todd.
• Two John Force Racing drivers, Brittany Force and Hight, have come from sixth and 10th, respectively, to earn championships.
• Eddie Krawiec (2008) and L.E. Tonglet (2010) have vaulted from the No. 7 starting spot to take the crown. Matt Hagan won his 2014 Funny Car title from seventh place, as well.
• As for gobbling up valuable points, Pro Stock’s Enders benefited most in qualifying from the points-and-a-half system at the recent U.S. Nationals, dominating with 17. Funny Car’s Robert Hight bagged 15 and Ron Capps 11. Justin Ashley, with 11, and Steve Torrence, with 10, led in the Top Fuel division. Bikers Matt Smith and Angelle Sampey each had 13. But none of that altered anyone’s places in the standings.
Still, those points could make a difference as the Countdown progresses.
Margin of Victory
• Schumacher has won the Top Fuel championship by the sport’s largest margin (415 points over runner-up Larry Dixon in pre-Countdown 2005) and its narrowest margin (two points over Dixon in 2009).
• Steve Torrence earned his second of four Top Fuel titles in 2019 by three points over Doug Kalitta, and Antron Brown had only a seven-point margin on Schumacher at the end of the 2012 season.
• Those close ones aren’t limited to the Top Fuel class. Jack Beckman captured his lone Funny Car crown in 2012, acing out Ron Capps by a mere two points. And just eight points separated Funny Car champion Gary Scelzi from runner-up Capps in 2005 and Robert Hight from second-place Beckman in 2019.
• In Pro Stock, Greg Anderson was on the wrong side of two tight championship chases, losing to Jason Line by three points in 2016 and Bo Butner by seven the following year.
• From 2007-2010, four different racers won the Pro Stock Motorcycle series championship by six points or fewer (Hector Arana by two over Krawiec in 2009, Tonglet by four over Andrew Hines in 2010, Krawiec by five over Chris Rivas in 2008, and Matt Smith by six over Chip Ellis in 2007).
Justin Ashley is seeded third in Top Fuel
NHRA/National Dragster
Marathon, Not a Sprint
Top Fuel contender Ashley probably summed it best: “We wanted to go into the Countdown in first place, like everyone else, but we also really wanted to be in a solid position to make a run at the championship if we weren’t No. 1. Coming into the playoffs in third place is a good spot, but what I learned about the Countdown is the margin for error is so small.
“Every team is running well, and we have to be on our A Game week in and week out. It is six races that is still a marathon, not a sprint.”
Keyword: History Is Against NHRA Champ Steve Torrence in Quest for Fifth Top Fuel Title