Automotive World's monthly global light vehicle sales forecast provides a snapshot of past and future sales volumes broken down by region
Over the first five months of 2023 global LV demand grew by an estimated 10-11% or over 3.3 million units, according to preliminary analysis. The improvement reflected a combination of improving supply conditions and weak year-ago comparisons for some markets following the invasion of Ukraine.
China accounted for about 29% of the overall increase, as its pattern of demand continues to be distorted by the Covid restrictions that were still in place in early 2022. However, all the Top-15 markets registered year-on-year increases over the first five months.
The full-year forecast remains for all the major regions to see increased demand in 2023, with a slight increase from prior status.
At the macro-level this reflects a similar slight improvement in the economic outlook for some economies, as well as consumer and business confidence edging higher in many markets.
At the industry level, new light vehicle demand stimulus packages have been announced by both China and Brazil and the forecasts have been raised in response.
Global light vehicle sales update
Light Vehicle sales (000s) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023(f) | Change -v- prior year | Change -v- prior status (pts) | Notes |
China | 24,605.1 | 24,042.8 | 25,269.0 | 5.1% | 0.4 | Extra stimulus measures announced, June 2023 |
N. America (US & Canada) | 16,720.1 | 15,380.4 | 16,410.9 | 6.7% | 0.1 | Pent-up demand / improving supply are positive, but finance costs and prices are negative. US consumer confidence hit six-month low in May. |
EU+EFTA+UK | 13,798.0 | 12,937.0 | 13,803.8 | 6.7% | -0.1 | EU consumer confidence improved in May, but below long-term average and intentions to make major purchases dipped. |
S. America | 4,652.0 | 4,833.0 | 5,094.0 | 5.4% | 0.5 | Brazil consumer confidence hit ten-year high. New stimulus for automotive demand announced in May. |
India | 3,538.1 | 4,387.8 | 4,703.7 | 7.2% | 0.1 | Further growth after record 2022. India overtook Japan to become world’s third largest market. |
Japan | 4,361.5 | 4,121.4 | 4,401.7 | 6.8% | 0.3 | 2022 was fourth year of decline taking the market to lowest since 1977. Strong start to 2023 and consumer confidence high. |
ASEAN | 2,455.0 | 2,794.0 | 2,975.6 | 6.5% | -0.1 | All four major markets (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia & Philippines) saw double-digit rises in 22. Further growth expected. Regional GDP forecast recently increased. |
Middle East | 2,408.4 | 2,451.8 | 2,608.7 | 6.4% | 0.2 | Demand in Turkey (regional leader) growing strongly. |
RoW | 7,827.5 | 7,025.7 | 7,320.8 | 4.2% | 0.2 | |
Total | 80,365.7 | 77,973.9 | 82,588.1 | 5.9% | 0.2 | |
Change | -3.0% | 5.9% |
LV Sales, Top-5 markets: May-23 & May-22 (units, 000s)
LV Sales, Top-5 markets: Jan-May 2023 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)
LV Sales, Next-10 markets: May-23 & May-22 (units, 000s)
LV Sales, Next-10 markets: Jan-May 2023 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)
Top-15 markets, change in LV Sales: May-23 -v- May-22 (%)
Change in LV Sales, Top-15 markets: Jan-May 2023 -v- yr ago (%)
Top-15 markets, change in LV Sales: Apr-23 -v- Apr-22 (000 units)
Top-15 markets, change in LV Sales: Jan-Apr 2023 -v- yr ago (000 units)
Keyword: Global light vehicle sales forecast – June 2023 edition