Model 3s line up for shipping from Pier 80. Source: Simon Williams/Twitter
Surging shipments from electric vehicles will help China overtake Japan as the world’s largest car exporter in 2023, according to research firm Canalys.
Electric vehicle exports from China are expected to reach 1.3 million in 2023, almost double the 679,000 EVs exported in 2022 according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
China auto exports. Source: CnEVPost
Total Chinese vehicle exports are predicted to hit 4.4 million in 2023, up from 3.1 million in 2022. In a recent paper, Morgan Stanley put Japan’s 2022 car exports at 3.8 million. However, the South China Morning Post says official data suggests the figure is closer to 3.5 million.
Either way, China’s booming EV exports, which now make up 30% of all exports, will see it surge past Japan into the top spot this year after overtaking second placed Germany in 2022.
Top vehicle exporting nations. Source: Morgan Stanley
Canalys says Southeast Asia, Europe, Africa, India and Latin America are the key markets that mainland Chinese carmakers are targeting. A “complete” automotive supply chain established at home is effectively sharpening its competitiveness globally.
South China Morning Post says the research predicts that Chinese EVs could account for 16.5 per cent of total sales in Europe by 2025. Chief economist at KPMG Kevin Kang predicted China’s market share will reach 15 per cent by that time, as players such as BYD, Nio, and Li Auto gain popularity among consumers.
“Chinese carmakers are supposed to build their brands outside the mainland to convince customers that the EVs are safe and reliable with higher performance,” independent auto analyst Gao Shen told South China Morning Post.
“To compete in Europe, they need to prove that Chinese-made EVs can be better than foreign brand cars in terms of quality.”
Until now Chinese EV exports to Australia have been relatively limited however that may be about to change. Yesterday MG, now a Chinese owned brand, unveiled Australia’s first sub-$40,000 new EV the MG4 which will be priced from $38,990, before on road costs.
MG’s announcement comes just days before BYD is set to reveal the Australian price of its own affordable EV, the Dolphin.
China currently produces around two thirds of the world’s EVs but so far the vast majority have stayed in China with exports making up less than 10% of sales for companies like BYD. With overall vehicle sales in China beginning to slow while EV makers continue to scale production rapidly, we may be about to see a surge in Chinese EV exports to countries like Australia.
Keyword: China set to overtake Japan as world’s largest car exporter thanks to surging EVs