The road transport sector must be decarbonized if there is any hope of averting the worse impacts of a changing climate.
According to a recently released report by BloombergNEF (BNEF), the global road transport sector can still reach net-zero emissions by 2050 through electrification.
For that to happen, however, the last internal combustion (ICE) vehicle must be sold by 2038. That is why the UK is banning their sale starting in 2030 and California is phasing them out by 2035. And now the EU has followed suit.
According to Aleksandra O’Donovan, the head of electric vehicles at BNEF, the window to stay on track for net-zero road transport emissions by 2050 is still open.
“But only just barely,” he says, adding, “a big push is needed from governments, automakers, part suppliers and charging infrastructure providers in the years ahead.”
Currently, certain segments such as buses and two- and three-wheelers (photo) are close to being on track for net-zero, but more action is needed in other segments – especially in medium and heavy commercial vehicles.
BNEF says that passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles require a moderate level of additional incentives
to achieve net-zero goals. For medium and heavy duty vehicles, however, “strong additional measures” are needed.
According to data compiled by BNEF, passenger EV sales are set to accelerate rapidly over the next few years, jumping from 6.6 million in 2021 to 21 million in 2025. Meanwhile, the fleet of EVs driving on global roads will grow from 16 million at the end of 2021 to 77 million by 2025 and 229 million by 2030.
With oil prices at record highs, the oil majors do not seem too concerned for now. But these trends are likely to impact oil demand in the years to come. BNEF says the growth in EV sales is already displacing 1.5 million barrels of oil demand per day and rising passenger EV sales is expected to displace 2.5 million barrels per day of oil demand by 2025.
If you believe the BNEF’s numbers, oil demand from road transport will peak by 2027, as electrification spreads to all sectors of road transport beyond passenger cars. Astonishingly BNEF claims that sales of ICEs already peaked in 2017, and it expects the global fleet of ICE passenger vehicles to start declining as early as 2024 as older cars are scrapped.
To get on track for a net-zero global fleet by 2050, zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) need to account for 61% of global
new passenger vehicles sales by 2030, 93% by 2035, with the last ICE vehicle sold by 2038 if not sooner.
That is a tall order even as auto manufacturers are rapidly shifting towards ZEVs. Colin McKerracher, head of
the advanced transport at BNEF and lead author of the report said, “Electric vehicles are a powerful tool in reducing global CO2 emissions from the transport sector,” adding;
“There are very positive signs that the market is moving in the right direction, but more action is needed – especially when it comes to heavy trucks. Action also needs to focus on emerging markets, which need financial support to help enable and accelerate the transition to electric mobility of all types.”
This article was originally published by EEnergyInformer. Reproduced here with permission
See also: Labor leaves path open to stricter vehicle efficiency standards to support EV push
And: EU ministers agree to ban on new fossil fuel car sales from 2035
Keyword: All petrol car sales must stop by 2038 for transport sector to meet net-zero