Polestar makes an argument for greater embrace of EVs by automakers, as electric vehicle adoption rates struggle along.
- New study cited by Polestar that surveyed 18,000 participants in 19 global markets in Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific shows 34% of drivers support a ban on ICE vehicles by 2030.
- Not all automakers have made plans to offer battery-electric models, with many hedging the departure date of gas and diesel offerings.
- Washington and California have taken legislative steps to phase out the sale of gas- and diesel-engined cars and light trucks by 2030 and 2035, respectively.
The states of Washington and California are already taking steps to phase out the sale of gas and diesel cars and trucks by 2030 and 2035, respectively, and have faced plenty of skepticism for the target dates adopted. Indeed, both states are heading at warp speed into the final frontier as charging infrastructure, stresses on the electrical grid, and auto dealer groups stand in their way.
But what does the rest of the world think about these EV-only targets?
A new study cited by Polestar—which surveyed 18,000 participants in 19 global markets in Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific regions—presents results that may or may not be surprising.
First and foremost, the study found that 34% of those polled favor a ban on internal combustion engine cars by 2030. We can call about one in three. But nearly half, or 47%, favor such a ban by the year 2035.
Of course, another way of putting this is that two-thirds of those surveyed are not in favor of such a move.
“The new study also finds that three-quarters of those surveyed believe society needs to consume differently to preserve the climate and the environment for future generations,” Polestar points out.
The results vary quite a bit by country when it comes to that 2030 target, with respondents in Finland being the most conservative with 20% voicing support for such a ban, and Norway as the second lowest with 27% in favor (which is interesting). Respondents in South Korea were the most enthusiastic, with 48% being in favor of a 2030 ban, followed immediately by the UK (44%), Singapore (42%), and Germany (37%). The Netherlands and Denmark followed at 36% of respondents, trailed by 35% in both China and Luxembourg. The US came in mid-pack, with 33% being in favor of a 2030 ban.
“Samples were designed to be nationally representative across all demographics, as far as is realistically possible using online panels and considering the sample represents drivers and future drivers only,” the study managers note.
Depending on one’s point of view, the results can be viewed either as promising—especially considering what the results could have been a decade ago—or not progressive enough.
Polestar, for one, takes the latter point of view. And the global EV adoption rate, putting aside outliers like Norway or China, is the reason.
“With just 1.5 percent of the vehicles on the road being electric today, it is clear we are living in an EV bubble, not an EV boom,” said Polestar CEO, Thomas Ingenlath. “This decade is the most critical we have ever faced when it comes to not overshooting the Paris agreement. We need governments to lead the charge with robust policies, both on infrastructure and addressing electricity prices so that drivers can confidently go electric, but more importantly, car makers must act now and not wait for policy changes.”
Ingenlath’s comments echo the fears of some in the auto industry that by 2030 EVs could achieve about 20% or 30% market share and then just sit at that level indefinitely, moving by a percentage point a year. In fact, some automakers are already planning for this scenario in their respective markets and are hedging the departures of gas and diesel models. Others in the industry fear that EVs could become quite commonplace in richer countries, while EV adoption in poorer countries goes nowhere, thereby placing automakers in a position where they will indefinitely produce vehicles seen as more polluting for poorer countries. Some industry watchers also fear that EVs could simply remain the cars of those in upper and upper-middle income brackets, as they are now.
In many ways we’re already seeing this split emerge in Europe, as Norway is rocketing ahead while countries in southern Europe, just a few hours away by car, are nowhere near EVs accounting for 2% of sales mark.
In between these scenarios there are a myriad variations on these themes, and none of them bode particularly well for EVs in the long term.
“As climate leaders meet this week in New York City, and with COP27 around the corner, it is clear there is climate meeting fatigue. But companies and consumers can become the antidote to that,” Ingenlath adds.
Jay Ramey Jay Ramey grew up around very strange European cars, and instead of seeking out something reliable and comfortable for his own personal use he has been drawn to the more adventurous side of the dependability spectrum.
Keyword: 34% of Drivers Support Ban on ICE Vehicles by 2030