The EU Commission’s expected draft legislation on emissions of heavy goods vehicles has arrived, requiring new trucks to cut emissions 90% by 2040 and all new city buses to have zero emissions from 2030. Still, the draft falls slightly short of delivering a fully effective ban of ICE trucks.
The good news first – the EU Commission proposes that new heavy trucks and buses must cut 90 per cent of CO2 emissions by 2040. The proposal is part of the new Green Deal and will replace the EU’s current shorter-term requirement that manufacturers ensure a 30 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to 2019/2020 levels. New interim targets further call for reducing tailpipe emissions by 45% by 2030 and 65% by 2035. What is more, city buses will have to be zero-emission by 2030 with the Commission assuming that electric buses “already account for a considerable share of the new fleet in several Member States”. City buses were also well suited for a faster conversion to zero-emission mobility because they run on short, fixed routes and have the chance to charge at the depot.
This all sounds good initially. At the same time, the 90% target falls short of the 100% zero emissions goal that the Benelux countries and Denmark called for last month, echoing similar demands by environmental NGOs and zero-emission vehicle manufacturers. They “called for the greatest ambition,” the Commission admits when referring to the consultations, before pointing out that some vehicle manufacturers, transport operators and suppliers of fuels supported “less ambitious targets”.
However, choosing to compromise slightly at 90% also means that the EU Commission has missed a chance to effectively ban ICE truck sales by 2040 – a target it had set for passenger cars by 2035. Said draft has been green-lighted by the EU Parliament and will be handed on to the member states. The deal for cars and light commercial vehicles also includes a new methodology for assessing CO2 emissions throughout the entire life-cycle of a vehicle.
Back to the heavy-duty vehicles – the now set interim targets also fall short of estimates of market developments delivered by external organisations. Agora Verkehrswende, for example, advocated for bringing forward the 30% target to 2027 and setting a 65% reduction for 2030. Price Waterhouse Coopers had come to similarly optimistic forecasts when looking at the current speed of the logistics industry moving forward with decarbonisation, as reported.
Moreover, the new draft leaves room for polluting trucks to still be sold in 2040, and environmental groups say new CO2-emitting trucks registered by that time would still be on the road in 2050, muddling the bloc’s agreed goal to reach net zero emissions by that date.
“Polluting trucks will continue to be sold for years longer than necessary, making the EU’s net-zero goal impossible,” Fedor Unterlohner, freight manager at Transport & Environment, told Reuters.
So, it may be down to the industry to move faster.
EU Commission leaves room for exceptions
As for the draft legislation, the EU Commission essentially leaves technologies such as hydrogen and battery-electric to the market.
At the same time, the new draft excludes vehicles for use by civil protection, fire or emergency services and armed forces. These are not subject to the CO2 emissions targets, writes the EC – “if a Member State so indicates in the registration and reporting process”.
The targets also do not apply to special purpose, off-road, and vocational vehicles, such as mobile cranes, forestry or agricultural vehicles. Further exemptions may be made for companies registering less than 100 new heavy-duty vehicles in the EU, according to a new Article 6b.
As expected, e-fuels, which some parts of the German government had desperately wanted, will play as good as no role under the new regulations. The Commission also rejects the crediting models put forward by the e-fuels industry as they would be “neither cost-effective for producers nor for operators and society as a whole”. Moreover, such mechanisms would blur the responsibilities of different actors for the goal of climate neutrality and increase the administrative burden. Synthetic fuels need five times as much electricity for their production as battery-only propulsion.
Measuring these emissions will make all the difference
While heavy goods vehicles make for only about two per cent of vehicles on the road, they account for 25% of transport emissions and for over 6% of total EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, according to the Commission, so there is a huge chance to get the EU in line with the Paris Agreement and the Fit for 55 package.
However, calculating emissions of any “fuel” type is complicated. The draft here refers to a “well-established system” already being in place” with regard to previous regulations. Member States and manufacturers annually report the CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of newly registered heavy-duty vehicles to the Commission.
Still, this reliance on emission measurements alone may have a weakening effect not only in that this may leave room for error in calculations but since the draft fails to set vehicle targets, e.g. aiming for a number of electric trucks on the road at certain points.
This approach was, for example, called for by Daimler Truck on a industry panel, where executives wanted to see “a precise share of ZEV vehicles in the market set by policy market, not a CO2 reduction target because planning security is missing today.” This could also include skipping Euro-7 entirely, so Daimler, in particular, in the city bus segment.
The new draft does include a recommendation for a “mandatory minimum share of zero-emission urban buses that should reflect the societal need for affordable public transport, including in rural areas,” but does not specify such a share.
The Commission further states that the new draft provides “important synergies” with the Euro 7 emission-type approval proposal. “This is particularly important since even zero-emission vehicles still emit microplastics from tyres and particles from brake systems,” so the EC. They further propose to regulate these non-exhaust emissions in Euro 7.
The European Parliament and EU member states must negotiate and approve the rules before they come into force. This will be marked by publishing in the Official Journal of the European Union and is expected in July.
The Commission also wants a review in 2028 regarding the effectiveness and impact of the regulation and to submit a report to the European Parliament and the Council, accompanied by a proposal for amending the regulation where appropriate. This could, for example, take into account technological advances or new measurements.
As for what to bet on in the medium term, trucks in the EU run on average for 14 to 20 years. An extended life cycle analysis was made in a recent ICCT study ahead of the draft’s presentation. The International Council for Clean Transportation found that battery-electric vehicles were presently superior to all other technologies in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in line with EU climate targets.
The researchers came to this conclusion since fuel-cell-electric solutions were facing environmental challenges concerning hydrogen production for years to come, thus reducing the technology’s current potential to reduce GHG emissions effectively.
About upcoming purchase decisions, the ICCT’s programme manager, Felipe Rodríguez, told electrive clearly: “Environmentally conscious fleets can rest assured that they are making the right decision in procuring battery electric trucks today. On the other hand, those betting on low carbon fuels should revise their decarbonisation strategy.”
europa.eu (complete draft), europa.eu (PI), europa.eu (fact sheet), europa.eu (EU Parliament on passenger cars)
Keyword: EU Commission proposes truck and bus emission targets