Leclerc has already proven he is capable of fighting for wins on a weekly basis, but Ferrari has not built a contender in years.
In 2019, Charles Leclerc briefly looked like the future star of Formula 1 as a whole. In a Ferrari that was a clear third to Red Bull and Mercedes, Leclerc not only won two races but took a series-leading seven poles. He did all of this while still paired with then-#1 driver Sebastian Vettel, who he seemed to replace as the preference at the team in-season. Then, Ferrari debuted their 2020 car.
This is the fifteenth installment of our driver-by-driver preview of the 2022 Formula 1 season. This weekend, we will be covering McLaren. You can find the rest of our previews here.
The SF1000 was a disaster. Leclerc salvaged two podiums in the opening four races of the season, but he would not see one again all year and the team fell to a distant sixth in the constructor’s standings. Leclerc’s ascent was put on hold for two years. Now, it has a chance to resume again.
HOW HE GOT HERE
Leclerc was an exceptional prospect. He debuted in cars in 2014, had a strong run in the now-defunct Formula 3 Europe in 2015, and did enough to earn a promotion to the GP3 series now known as Formula 3 for the 2016 season. He won that title as a rookie, then won the Formula 2 title as a rookie a year later. In the modern F1 ladder, it is as good a resume as a driver can put together.
That got him to Alfa Romeo as a Ferrari-affiliated academy driver. Ten points-paying finishes got him Kimi Raikkonen’s seat at Ferrari in a 1-to-1 swap the next year. Then, a breakout. Seven poles, ten podiums, and two wins highlighted a 2019 season where Leclerc took the #1 driver title at Ferrari from four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel by force. Unfortunately for Leclerc, Ferrari could not keep up with him.
2020 saw just two podiums. In 2021, Vettel was replaced by Carlos Sainz Jr. Suddenly, Leclerc had internal competition.
HOW 2021 WENT
Sainz beat Leclerc in the championship, but it was just a 5.5-point difference. That is close enough that neither driver can be given a clear preference heading into 2022. Both struggled to overcome what was again a deeply flawed Ferrari, still far from a contender despite major engine performance gains in the offseason.
Leclerc’s season highlight was a pole at Monaco. Unfortunately, he crashed a few corners after his session-leading lap. That wreck damaged his chassis so badly that he would miss the race entirely. Another pole at Azerbaijan a week later would lead to a finish of just fourth, tying his best of the year in a season without a single podium.
GOALS FOR 2022
Leclerc was already the driver he needed to be to fight for eventual championships in 2019. His form in the last competitive Ferrari gives hope that any new competitive Ferrari will vault him right into championship contention immediately. However, the regression needs to be noted.
The former race winner earned 63 more points over five more 2021 races than he did in 2020. In the same season, however, Sainz recorded all of the team’s four podium finishes. A driver who was so quick to string together great achievements at Ferrari saw someone else take those highest highs in a season where he floated more consistently around the middle of the points-scoring positions. If he wants to compete for a title this year, that form will be unacceptable.
All of this is a moot point if the Ferrari is not good. If the team misses again, Leclerc and Sainz will be headed for another season dicing between fifth and tenth in the driver’s standings. If the team hits on something, their equal footing is going to make a battle for either to win a championship very difficult.
A SUCCESSFUL SEASON LOOKS LIKE…
Whether or not the Ferrari is up to par, Leclerc needs to perform like he did in 2019 or better. A driver that got so good so quickly between his 2016 GP3 debut and his first win four years later should have plenty of room to improve, so getting back there after some early regression should be a very achievable goal. He can certainly be beaten by Sainz again, but a driver with so much potential should at least hope to match his teammate in highlight races.
If the Ferrari is good, the bar is much higher. In a 23-race season, Leclerc should win at least three races in a competitive Ferrari. He has that level of talent and Ferrari should expect to be that level of team. If the car is capable of this and he does not reach this level, his season would be a disappointment.
Keyword: Charles Leclerc's Future Hinges on What Ferrari Can Do