Water is water, right? Yes and no. There are a number of factors that can affect the characteristics of water and make it do interesting things. Hot water is less dense than cold water, which can create a thermosyphon effect. In Germany, a company called Eavor is using it to make its closed loop geothermal system work. Water heated by rocks deep underground rises to the surface without the need for pumps because it is lighter than cooler water being piped down a different well alongside. Impurities can also affect the properties of water — the things that make seawater salty, for instance. Differences in salinity can cause water in the ocean to rise to the surface or fall toward the bottom. And don’t forget that the Earth is spinning, which helps create the great ocean currents that swirl clockwise in the northern hemisphere and counterclockwise in the southern hemisphere. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current — AMOC for short — carries heat from the tropics up the east coast of North America, then eastward toward Europe, where that heat helps to warm places like Iceland, Scandinavia, western Europe, and the UK. Without AMOC, those places would be significantly colder than they are today. Understanding AMOC For years, scientist have studied the AMOC in an effort to understand how it operates and what influences it. Everyone agrees that if it slowed or stopped altogether, there would be serious consequences for the nations affected by it, but so far, the scientific models have been all over the place. Some predicted the collapse of the AMOC within a few decades while others suggested it would be many centuries before it stopped flowing. That sort of uncertainty is the hobgoblin of the weak minded, who thump their chests and crow that no changes in the Earth’s environment are happening and never will. Now a team of researchers led by Valentin Portmann of the Inria Centre de recherche Bordeaux Sud-Ouest in France says its latest studies suggest the more pessimistic predictions are likely the most accurate. The research was published April 15, 2026 in the journal Science Advances. “We found that the AMOC is going to decline more than expected compared to the average of all climate models. This means we have an AMOC that is closer to a tipping point,” Valentin told The Guardian. Prof Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany offered his view. “This is an important and very concerning result. It shows that the ‘pessimistic’ models, which show a strong weakening of the AMOC by 2100, are, unfortunately, the realistic ones, in that they agree better with observational data. I now am increasingly worried that we may well pass that AMOC shutdown tipping point, where it becomes inevitable, in the middle of this century, which is quite close.” Rahmstorf has studied the AMOC for 35 years and said a collapse must be avoided at all costs. “I argued this when we thought the chance of an AMOC shutdown was maybe 5 percent and even then we were saying that risk is too high, given the massive impacts. Now it looks like it’s more than 50 percent. The most dramatic and drastic climate changes we see in the last 100,000 years of Earth history have been when the AMOC switched to a different state.” Meanwhile at MAGA headquarters, its minions were telling the people “Nothing to see here. Move along. Arresting scary dark skin people will protect us. Nothing to see here. Move along.” Causes For Concern The Guardian article claims the AMOC is slowing because air temperatures are rising rapidly in the Arctic due to global heating. A spokesperson for the alleged president of the United States hotly denied that statement, saying, “Things get hot. Things get cold. Who cares as long as some of us, like Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, are getting incredibly wealthy? If you are not part of the Big Con, it sucks to be you.” Warmer temperatures in the Arctic mean the ocean cools more slowly. Since warmer water is less dense, it sinks into the depths more slowly. That, in turn, allows more rainfall to accumulate in the salty surface waters, making them even less dense, which further slows the sinking that powers the AMOC. Ocean currents are similar to the cooling system in a car — they move heat from one place to another. But there is no water pump driving them. Their movement depends entirely on temperature, salinity, and the rotation of the Earth. Changes in temperature and salinity lead to changes in the strength of the currents. The basic concept is simple physics, but too complex for those who are paid handsomely to not understand it, Understanding A Complex System Studying the oceans in general and AMOC in particular is highly complex. Random natural variations make precise predictions impossible. The current is difficult to model because it is governed by subtle differences in water density caused by salinity changes over the entire North Atlantic. The latest research explored four different ways of using real-world observations to assess the models. They found a method called ridge regression — which had not been widely used in climate science before — provided the best results. The reduction in uncertainty in the new analysis results from identifying the models that better reflect surface salinity in the south Atlantic, which scientists already knew was important. This makes the work “very credible,” said Rahmstorf. He added that an AMOC slowdown in 2100 may be even greater than in the new, pessimistic assessment, because the computer models do not include the melt water from the Greenland ice cap that is also adding more fresh water to the North Atlantic. “That is one additional factor that means the reality is probably still worse,” he said. Why Is AMOC Important? The researchers explained, “The AMOC is a system of ocean currents that transports warm and salty water into the North Atlantic via upper-ocean currents. In winter, these salty waters release heat to the atmosphere, cooling them and making them very dense. They eventually form deep waters in the Irminger, Labrador, and Nordic Seas through the convection process. These newly formed deep waters are then transported southward by deep currents.” “Changes to the AMOC will strongly influence future climates in the Atlantic and beyond. A key consequence of an AMOC slowdown, among many others, is the equator-ward shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone, which will lead to the drying out of the Sahel region and put pressure on its agriculture and food security.” For those not familiar with the term, Sahel refers to the transition zone between the more humid savannas in Sudan in the south and the drier Sahara region to the north. Upwards of 400 million people live in the region. If they are unable to feed themselves, they will attempt to move to where they can. And who will welcome 400 million immigrants? You know the answer to that. Failure To Plan = A Plan To Fail Credit: National Parks Service In the final analysis, a failure of the AMOC will dramatically alter the climate in Europe and the UK, with likely negative repercussions for farmers. Hungry people tend to be a destabilizing political influence, which means the MAGA know-nothings have a vested interest in preventing famines caused by alterations in the Earth’s climate. And yet, they insist on pursuing policies that make climate disruptions more likely. Even a Golden Retriever knows that is a shortsighted policy that is doomed to fail, yet still they persist. The odds are, by the time people figure out they have been duped, it will be too late to stop the disruption of Earth systems, and life as we know will be disrupted in many parts of the world. There are none so blind as those who will not see.