Preliminary data from ACEA shows a situation worsening in the European new car market (EU+UK+EFTA) down a painful -29.3% year-on-year in October to just 798.693 units. This is the lowest October volume since ACEA started tracking European data in the 1990s. The year-to-date tally is now up just 2.7% to 9.960.706. As a result we have revised our 2021 Forecast for Europe down to 11.7 million units, a -2% drop on 2020. 3 of the big 5 markets fall faster than the overall rate, with Italy freefalling -35.7%, Germany down -34.9% and France off -30.7%, while Spain is down -20.5% and the UK down -24.6%. Among smaller markets, Ireland (+16.7%), Iceland (+6.5%) and Cyprus (+5.2%) are the only year-on-year gainers, with Greece (-5.4%), Slovenia (-7.2%) and Croatia (-8.7%) keeping their fall into the single-digits. The worst performers are Lithuania (-54.8%), Austria (-39.2%) and Belgium (-35.3%).
We have a big event in the groups ranking: Stellantis (-31.6%) overtakes the VW Group (-41.9%) for the first time since the group was formed. The VW Group is suffering from the microchip crisis more than the rest of manufacturers on the continent, with its main factory in Wolfsburg Germany being paused multiple times in recent months. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (-30.6%) almost matches the market in third place above a splendid Hyundai-Kia (+6.7%) going completely against the devastated environment to sign the only year-on-year gain among groups. The BMW Group (-22.1%) and Toyota Group (-23.5%) both resist ok in context, with Daimler (-34.3%) and Ford (-41.4%) in freefall.
Looking at brands, Volkswagen (-40.2%) tumbles down but easily stays #1, while Peugeot (-30.5%) rallies back up five spots on last month to clinch the 2nd place both in October and year-to-date. Renault (-36%) stays in third place above Mercedes (-36.3%) in trouble and BMW (-21.2%) faring better. Below Toyota (-24.4%) down four ranks on September to #6, Hyundai (+11%) and Kia (+2.6%) post the only upticks in the Top 10 and 20 but drop to #7 and #8 respectively vs. #6 and #5 last month. Ford (-41.4%) and Fiat (-32.2%) painfully round out the Top 10. Further down, only Porsche (+13.4%) and Smart (+4.9%) manage year-on-year lifts, with all other Top 25 carmakers down by at least -18%. Mazda is off -18.5%, Suzuki is estimated to fall -20.4%, Mitsubishi is at -20.9%, Volvo at -22% and Dacia at -23.1%. Reversely, Skoda (-49.3%), Audi (-45.8%) and Land Rover (-38.8%) all struggle.
Previous month: Europe September 2021: Tesla Model 3 best-seller in market down -25.2%
One year ago: Europe October/November 2020: Recovery cut short with -7.2% and -13.7% respective drops
Full October 2021 Top 10 groups and Top 25 brands below.
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Keyword: Stellantis topples VW Group, Hyundai up 11% in market falling -29.3% – Best Selling Cars Blog