From Best Picture to Best Director, here’s who could (and should) take home an Academy Award in March
(Image credit: Netflix/Focus Features/20th Century Studios/Sony Pictures)
The winner is… hard to call. The pool of potential Oscars 2022 winners feels paradoxical: it is both one of the most open years in recent memory, yet (at a glance) feels like one of its most shallow in terms of genuine all-time standouts.
In another year truncated by COVID cold feet in cinemas and a general reluctance to return to the theatrical experience, it seems that heavy hitters (previous years went as deep as The Irishman, Dunkirk, Whiplash, and Minari as outsiders) are few and far between.
Look a little deeper, however, and you’ll see the truth: a series of excellent films, punctuated by career-best performances, directors at the top of their game, and several unsung actors who are about to catch their big break. Whether you’ve religiously watched them all or have been a little out of loop, we’re here to fill in the gaps and flag up the big names likely to be nominated this year.
It’s also a good time for avid movie watchers to squeeze in as many Best Picture nominees as they can before March’s big day. Even if the movie industry is changing, the Oscars still carry all the prestige that comes with taking home an Academy Award.
So, join us as we take a whistlestop tour through all the big frontrunners and sideline maybes in our list of Oscars 2022 predictions for Best Picture, Best Director, and the four acting categories.
Best Picture
(Image credit: Netflix)
The Power of the Dog could become Netflix’s first-ever Best Picture winner. The Jane Campion-directed western has all the ingredients of a sure-fire success: a gorgeous slow-burn of a story backdropped by the sort of luscious landscapes that demand a big-screen viewing. There’s also the extra spice of a big-name actor, Benedict Cumberbatch, plumbing serious emotional depths as irascible ranch owner Phil Burbank, and a director in Jane Campion who has previously been looked on favorably by the Academy.
It’s not a guarantee, but we’d be surprised not to see The Power of the Dog follow in the recent footsteps of Parasite and Nomadland. It also has awards pedigree, picking up seven Golden Globe nominations and three wins, including for Best Picture (Drama). While the recent hit-rate on Golden Globe winners translating to Best Picture success is about 50/50, it’s certainly got the momentum to sway voters. If you crunch the numbers further, two-thirds of Best Director winners have also taken home Best Picture – and Jane Campion is currently overwhelming favorite in that category.
Hot on its heels, however, is Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast. Its deft, emotionally rich handling of The Troubles in Northern Ireland immediately put it on the radar of the industry’s leading lights, including a Golden Globes nomination for Best Picture (Drama). We’re getting a faint whiff of Roma about this one, though: a black-and-white masterpiece lacking just enough mainstream support to land the big one.
West Side Story has also been talked up in some circles. It may have flopped commercially but was well-received by critics. History, though, is not on its side: The last musical to win Best Picture was Chicago in 2003. Beyond those three, we would expect CODA, Licorice Pizza, King Richard, and Dune to make the list of nominees.
Don’t be surprised to see a bigger name thrown in there too, a la Black Panther in 2019. Marvel has been pushing Spider-Man: No Way Home on the awards circuit, while No Time to Die and Don’t Look Up would likely be on the lips of Academy voters after dominating the discourse upon their release. That’s usually enough to squeak onto the shortlist.
Best Director
(Image credit: Netflix)
Last year, Chloe Zhao was only the second woman in 100 years to win Best Director. The previous woman to do so? Jane Campion, for 1993’s The Piano.
If you believe the bookmakers, Campion is a dead cert to win for a second time, becoming the first director to pick up multiple Best Director wins since Alfonso Cuaron with Roma and Gravity. Campion’s work on The Power of the Dog felt instantly revelatory, breathing new, soft life into a genre that is so often eclipsed by rough machismo and big, wild swings of masculinity.
In a similar vein, Kenneth Branagh’s direction on Belfast should earn him serious acclaim – but may ultimately end up falling short. His handling of a semi-autobiographical tale paints a picture of a Northern Ireland ravaged by conflict, yet is still able to juggle the boundless joie de vivre of Buddy (Jude Hill).
In terms of shot construction – and a compelling narrative away from the screen – the Academy should be looking at Joel Coen for his first time flying solo without his brother Ethan in The Tragedy of Macbeth. Every frame is lovingly constructed, almost cut from the same cloth as the likes of Zeffirelli’s Romeo and Juliet for pure overawing spectacle. He is also bolstered by the towering talents of Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand, which might see Coen make a late run at the award.
Steven Spielberg is a perennial Academy favorite and he left critics spellbound with his all-singing, all-dancing West Side Story remake. Paul Thomas Anderson will also likely receive a nomination; his skilled work on Licorice Pizza helped guide newcomers Alana Haim and Cooper Hoffman. Denis Villeneuve (Dune) and King Richard’s Reinaldo Marcus Green could fill out one of the remaining slots.
More household names, such as Ridley Scott (House of Gucci), Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), and Aaron Sorkin (Being the Ricardos) are also in with a shout. We would love to see a newcomer – such as Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Lost Daughter or Lin-Manuel Miranda for Tick… Tick… Boom! – make the list. Fingers crossed.
Best Actor
(Image credit: Warner Bros.)
History is on Will Smith’s side. In the past 80 years, the vast majority of actors who picked up a Golden Globe for Best Actor – as he did this year for King Richard – also took home the Oscar statuette.
It’s well-deserved, too. Smith has always flirted with quote-unquote ‘serious’ performances, but King Richard was the perfect showcase for his acting chops. In it, he plays Richard Williams, a peripheral and often controversial figure in the Williams tennis dynasty, and imbues him with a relentless energy that dutifully deals with the outsider’s turmoil of being a coach first and a father second.
The bookies have Andrew Garfield – who has quietly been winning acclaim for years after his Amazing Spider-Man series fizzled out – for his part in Tick…Tick…Boom! as Jonathan Larson. His multi-faceted performance, including belting out a few songs, might just tip the scales in his favor if an upset comes to pass.
So often, though, momentum appears to take over for a single film. Benedict Cumberbatch could be in with a chance of winning Best Actor, especially given that his talents are a considerable reason why The Power of the Dog is leading the conversation in the Best Picture category.
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) and Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon) – both the closest things to Academy sweethearts – could also end up on the shortlist. It will be interesting to see whether Mahershala Ali’s Golden Globe nomination for Swan Song leads to some late buzz.
Best Actress
(Image credit: Amazon Prime)
This is arguably the most open major category at this year’s Oscars. Nicole Kidman took home the Golden Globe for her work in Being the Ricardos. Biographical performances so often do well with the Academy, and the Australian actor’s transformation into Lucille Ball avoided any of the usual traps when portraying a real-life person with so much televised history behind them.
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) and Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) each electrified in the past 12 months, though Chastain’s more eye-catching and ‘adventurous’ performance may tempt those on the fence.
Two leading contenders, meanwhile, will have to buck a serious trend to take home the Oscar in March. Kristen Stewart is undoubtedly a frontrunner for her tender portrait of Princess Diana in Spencer, as is Rachel Zegler for West Side Story. Neither were nominated for a Screen Actors’ Guild award. As per the BBC, only three of the past 108 Best Actress nominees weren’t nominated for a SAG award. While Zegler’s Golden Globes win for Best Picture (Musical) should sew up a nomination, SAG’s nominations are so often one of the best weathervanes for Oscars success – and it’s hard to see either actor overcoming that barrier to win.
Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), and Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) are all in line for possible industry recognition too.
Best Supporting Actor
(Image credit: Amazon Studios)
Best Supporting Actor this year is a nice mix of relative unknowns, veterans, and household names who have taken a more interesting step back away from the spotlight in 2021’s film output.
In terms of newcomers, Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog tops the lot. His tender, conflicted relationship with Benedict Cumberbatch’s Phil Burbank put him on the map and felt like an instant star-making performance.
Through no fault of his own, Smit-McPhee would be one of the lowest profile winners in decades. If the Academy looks elsewhere to a more known quantity, they could do a lot worse than Ben Affleck in The Tender Bar. It’s always interesting to see an archetypal leading man sink into a more restrained performance; his role as mentor/sounding board to Tye Sheridan’s JR Maguire carried some serious warmth. With a SAG and Golden Globe nomination in the back, Affleck should comfortably make the shortlist.
Ciaran Hinds in Belfast could chip away at early support for Smit-McPhee in the coming weeks, though he may have to contend with castmate Jamie Dornan. If CODA strikes a chord with voters, Troy Kotsur could also join the pair. As, too, could Jesse Plemons for his understated performance in The Power of the Dog.
House of Gucci’s time appears to have elapsed already, though a nod for Jared Leto for his overblown, charismatic turn as Paolo Gucci could endear himself to voters. It would largely be a surprise, but there are those who seem to have a thing for a well-known actor lurching into unrecognizable territory.
Best Supporting Actress
(Image credit: 20th Century Studios)
In terms of performances, this year’s crop of Best Supporting Actress hopefuls are among the richest, deepest batch in quite some time.
The bookmakers have Ariana DeBose as the clear favorite for West Side Story. Musicals aren’t usually fertile ground for prominent wins – though the surprise Golden Globe for DeBose has tipped the scales in her favor.
On the outside looking in, we have Catriona Balfe for Belfast and Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog. The latter – a tad unfairly – is surrounded by similarly incredible performances so may get a little lost in the shuffle.
Balfe, though, is the dramatic frontrunner in our eyes – her stoic Ma belies the incredible grief found underneath as she’s torn between her child’s happiness and her family’s safety. The fact Balfe allows both to shine through – only when she lets us – is testament to her incredible ability. If either of those two win, it could be an early indicator that their films are in with a chance of sweeping the major categories. One to watch, for sure.
Movie legend Rita Moreno (West Side Story) would be an incredibly popular pick and may well find herself on the shortlist. Recognition from the Golden Globes would suggest Aunjane Ellis (King Richard) is in with a chance. So, too, is Ruth Negga, whose performance in Passing certainly deserves more acclaim than it’s currently getting.
The nominations for the 94th Academy Awards are due out on February 8. In the meantime, get a greater grasp on the upcoming year-in-cinema with our movie release dates guide.
Keyword: Oscars 2022 predictions: the frontrunners for every major award