Professor Ouyang Minggao at the forum. Credit: China EV100 Understand China EV’s Market Real-time notifications when critical EV data is released All important data in one place 2,000,000+ data points Become a member At the Intelligent Electric Vehicle Development Forum held on April 11-12 in Beijing, Professor Ouyang Minggao of Tsinghua University delivered a stark assessment of China’s automotive technology roadmap, declaring that plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles have already entered a downward trajectory and predicting that pure electric vehicles will achieve absolute market dominance by 2040. Pure electric efficiency advantage Professor Ouyang emphasised that pure electric drive represents the most efficient utilisation of green electricity, boasting efficiency rates twice that of hydrogen vehicles and four times that of synthetic fuel internal combustion engine vehicles. This fundamental efficiency advantage, he argued, has predetermined the decline of plug-in hybrids and extended-range models. Market share projections The professor outlined an aggressive digital blueprint for the industry’s future: 2030: New energy passenger vehicle market share will exceed 70%, with pure electric to plug-in ratio at 7:3 2035: Market share will stabilise above 80%, with pure electric to plug-in ratio reaching 8:2 2040: Market share remains at 80%+, with pure electric dominating at a 9:1 ratio “This means pure electric drive will completely end the route debate and occupy an absolute dominant position, leading Chinese automobiles to complete the final leap from ‘big’ to ‘strong,'” Ouyang stated. Caution on solid-state batteries Addressing the industry’s current enthusiasm for solid-state batteries, Ouyang urged restraint. He noted that all-solid-state batteries still face unresolved scientific challenges, including interfacial side reactions affecting chemical, air, mechanical, and thermal stability. While he predicted that solid-state batteries achieving 300 Wh/kg energy density would likely appear by the end of 2030, he cautioned companies to proceed carefully with product launches and avoid treating the technology as a marketing gimmick. China has made significant progress in this field, accounting for 44% of newly published patent applications last year, with domestic production capacity of sulfide electrolytes exceeding 20,000 tons. Prices have fallen from 20 million yuan (290,000 USD) per ton to under 1 million yuan per ton (14,500 USD) . Ternary VS LFP market shares. Data: China EV DataTracker Battery safety evolution Professor Ouyang highlighted three critical milestones in battery safety development: 2014: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology suspended the use of ternary batteries in buses due to safety concerns 2020: BYD’s launch of lithium iron phosphate blade batteries ended the notion that LFP batteries could not be used in passenger vehicles Upcoming: Implementation of new battery safety standards requiring non-combustion and non-explosion performance He noted that China lacks an authoritative safety ranking system, unlike some foreign markets where companies using ternary batteries have achieved top safety rankings through comprehensive lifecycle management. Industry transformation The professor outlined five emerging business models in China’s automotive industry transformation: Vertical integration model: Led by comprehensive electrification with intelligent empowerment Dual-drive strategy: Combining fuel vehicles with electric vehicles, domestic and international markets New automaker model: Internet thinking, smart terminal marketing, user ecosystem approach Horizontal integration model: Value chain restructuring focused on intelligence and brand marketing State-owned enterprise reform: Enhancing market competitiveness through institutional reform. New energy commercial vehicles For commercial trucks, Ouyang projected market share for new energy vehicles at over 50% by 2030, over 60% by 2035, and over 70% by 2040. Total new energy vehicle ownership is expected to reach 100-150 million by 2030, 200-300 million by 2035, and 300-380 million by 2040. Green electricity consumption is projected to exceed 50% (approximately 55-60%) by 2030 and reach 65-70% by 2035, making electric vehicles truly “new energy vehicles” powered predominantly by renewable sources. About Ouyang Minggao Ouyang Minggao (born in 1958), one of the top experts in the auto industry, is a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and an Editor-in-Chief of eTransportation. He is currently a Changjiang Distinguished Professor and the Leader of the Advanced Powertrain System Team, School of Vehicle and Mobility, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, where he is responsible for directing the research and development of lithium-ion battery safety design and management, PEM fuel cell powertrain and hydrogen systems, engine control and hybrid powertrains, energy storage, and smart energy systems.