The EV sales picture has been pretty miserable here in the US since last September, when the all-important $7,500 federal tax credit bit the dust. And yet, by July economists at Harvard University were predicting that EVs will account for a fairly healthy 32% of all new vehicle sales in the US by 2030, which is just around the corner. That estimate was since corrected to an even rosier 38%, more than quadruple the 2025 figure of just 8%. How is such an acceleration even possible under the present circumstances. Perhaps the tax credit was not so important after all… The Inevitable Rise Of EV Sales In The US If a rapid acceleration in EV sales does materialize, much of the credit can be credited to US President Donald Trump, who decided to launch a war of choice in Iran on February 28. Predictably, Iran closed the key Strait of Hormuz fossil fuel shipping route. The conflict has since ballooned out to engulf the entire region in a willy-nilly destruction of oil and gas infrastructure, sending prices at the pump rocketing upwards around the globe. Trump can also take credit for failing to deploy the full diplomatic and economic muscles of the US against Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Trump’s weak-kneed (for lack of a better word), favor-currying relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin enabled the Russian leader to somehow envision a winning scenario even as Russia’s oil and gas assets go up in flames, adding to the hurt on global fuel markets. Of course, high fuel prices don’t necessarily change hearts and minds among drivers. Earlier this year, transportation analysts cautioned that a temporary spike in fuel prices will not necessarily move the needle on EV sales. Some referenced the COVID-era fuel price spike, which faded out of memory without prompting a particularly significant movement on EV sales. However, that was then. With the Iran war continuing to spiral out of control, and Putin continuing to press an unwinnable war at the expense of its own energy assets, this year’s price spike is beginning to look more like the new normal. The OBBA Did Its Job… The new Harvard study was produced through the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability and published on July 6 under the self explanatory title, “Simulating Impacts of Trump Policy Changes on Electric Vehicle (EV) Adoption.” To be clear, the study is not particularly a feel-good story. In a business-as-usual scenario with Biden-era energy policies in place, the authors cite a figure of 48% for EV uptake by 2030. Still, the estimate of 32% is yet another indication that Trump failed to stop the vehicle electrification movement. The news got even better on September 17, when the Harvard Gazette recapped the study alongside a note from the editor, stating that the 2030 EV sales estimate has been corrected from 32% to 38%. Of particular interest is the role of the $7,500 tax credit, which was eliminated in Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” tax law. The Harvard economists found that other Trump-era policies were hurtful but not particularly impactful. Rather, they found that the OBBA alone accounts for most of the difference in their 2030 sales forecast. “We estimate that the OBBBA’s elimination of the IRA EV-related tax credits will reduce the 2030 EV sales share of new vehicles from 48.0% to 39.4%, relative to a December 2024 policy baseline,” the authors summarize. “Of the policies we consider that make up the OBBBA, the largest single reduction in the 2030 EV sales share (6.2 percentage points) comes from the elimination of the tax credits for new, used, and commercial EV purchases (including retail leases),” they emphasize. …But The New Normal Is Still EVs, EVs, And More EVs OBBA or not, a 38% overall share in new vehicle sales is quite a jump from the 2025 figure of 8%. So, what’s the difference between the new normal of the coming years and the fuel price spike of the COVID years? Aside from Trump’s on-brand mishandling of global affairs, the Harvard study adds some familiar-sounding insights. The lockdowns and fuel shortages of the COVID-19 pandemic took place just a few years ago, but EV battery technology has improved since then, enabling more drivers to use an EV for long range driving while also bringing down the up-front cost of an EV. Concurrently, the public EV charging station network is far more widespread and sophisticated today than it was just a few years ago. Despite last year’s sharp U-turn in federal energy policy, EV charging station activity has continued to accelerate among quick-serve restaurants and other motorist-friendly locations, with curbside charging also beginning to chip in. More broadly, the study indicates that the $7,500 federal tax credit is no longer a make-or-break factor in EV sales. With the up-front cost of EVs dropping, drivers can focus on other attractions of EV ownership, including a better-performing vehicle, fewer trips to the shop for routine maintenance, and, of course, practically eliminating exposure to the vagaries of the fossil energy marketplace. It’s also worth noting that the convenience factor also comes into play. Consolidation in the retail gas industry has led to a long term slide in the number of retail gas locations, with drivers in some urban and rural areas particularly vulnerable to the “gas desert” phenomenon. Even without the extra convenience of home charging, recharging an EV battery is becoming less of a hassle than refilling a gas tank. Losing The War On EVs The OBBA is an Act of Congress, not some random executive order that can be overturned in court. Still, as the Harvard study notes, overturning some of those other Trump-era obstacles could help support EV sales. For example, Trump ordered a halt to the $5 billion “NEVI” public fast-charging program in mid-stream upon taking office last year. Short for National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure, NEVI was designed to provide states with federal dollars to collaborate on a national public charging network, assuring EV drivers of access to fast-charging stations on Interstate highways and other major thoroughfares. A judge later overturned Trump’s order, enabling the program to continue. Another factor in support of EV sales is the rising number of EVs offered by trusted brands. While some legacy automakers pulled back on their electrification plans after the tax credit died last year, other well-worn names in the auto industry have begun to pick up the slack. That includes Subaru, which introduced new EV models to the US earlier this year. Toyota also added three new EVs to its lineup this year. Then there’s Ford, which has been assiduously pre-gaming for volume production of its forthcoming Fathom electric pickup truck. The company is on track to market the new pickup at just under $30,000. Photo: Toyota is among the legacy automakers banking on the vehicle electrification movement to persist in the US, despite the challenges posed by Trump-era policy changes impacting EV sales (screenshot, 2027 bZ courtesy of Toyota).
