Photo: Nexamp US community solar just cleared 10 GW, and that’s a big deal, but the growth story just got a lot more complicated. Community solar is a model in which customers subscribe to a shared local project and receive credits on their electricity bills, no rooftop required. New data from Wood Mackenzie and the Coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA) shows that the US reached 10.1 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2025. Installations slowed in 2025 There is, however, a catch: The sector actually shrank in 2025, with installations down 25% compared to 2024. The US added 1,435 MW of community solar last year, with weaker activity in mature markets like New York and Maine dragging down totals. That dip isn’t expected to last. Wood Mackenzie forecasts a 12% rebound in 2026, driven largely by growth in Illinois and Mid-Atlantic states. Advertisement - scroll for more content Even so, the longer-term outlook is more complicated. The report expects total installed capacity in existing state programs to decline by an average of 5% annually through 2030. At the same time, developers are sitting on more than 8 GW of projects with 29% already under construction. But getting projects built is getting harder, thanks to interconnection bottlenecks and a shifting federal policy landscape tied to tax credit deadlines. New state programs could drive the next wave Future growth increasingly depends on new state markets coming online. Developers are already lining up projects in states like Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, where new legislation could unlock additional demand. If those programs move forward, they could add as much as 1.5 GW of new capacity through 2030. But there’s a catch: the planned phaseout of the federal investment tax credit (ITC) in 2030 could make it harder for new projects to meet the placed-in-service deadlines in 2026 and 2027, which are new ITC requirements under the Trump administration. Developers are shifting strategies Developers aren’t just waiting on policy. They’re also expanding into what the report calls “community-scale” solar, or projects up to 20 MW. These are smaller than traditional utility-scale solar farms but can connect directly to the distribution grid and get built faster. Developers are especially targeting Ohio and Pennsylvania for this type of project, where demand for new power is growing quickly. “[Community-scale] resources have the ability to be deployed more quickly than larger utility-scale projects and, particularly when paired with storage, can improve grid flexibility and reliability,” said Caitlin Connelly, senior analyst and lead author of the report. Costs are coming down – slowly There’s some good news on the customer side. Subscriber acquisition costs dropped 12% in 2025 compared to 2024 across all segments. Developers are focusing on lowering those costs as they plan for a future without the ITC. Wood Mackenzie expects costs to keep falling through 2030, driven by initiatives such as consolidated utility billing and improved digital marketing tools. Low- and moderate-income (LMI) customers are still the most expensive to sign up, at around $100 per kilowatt. Subscription management companies are also consolidating. In February 2026, Perch Energy acquired Solstice following its merger with Arcadia. By the end of 2025, just four major platforms and vertically integrated developers controlled 55% of operating community solar capacity. What could come next Wood Mackenzie modeled two possible market outcomes. In a best-case scenario, stronger state policies and faster interconnection reforms could boost the five-year outlook by about 16%, adding roughly 1.2 GW. In a downside case, tighter tax credit rules and slower state action could shrink the outlook by about 14%, cutting around 1 GW. Either way, hitting 10 GW is a big deal, and the industry has delivered bill savings to thousands of households and businesses so far. As new markets open and developers try new models, community solar is still evolving, even as policy uncertainty hangs over what comes next. Read more: Nexamp found a faster way to build solar – it did the utility’s job, too If you’re looking to replace your old HVAC equipment, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you’re finding a trusted, reliable HVAC installer near you that offers competitive pricing on heat pumps, check out EnergySage. EnergySage is a free service that makes it easy for you to get a heat pump. 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