Tesla delivered just 358,023 vehicles in the 1st quarter, which was a 6.3% increase over Q1 2025, but was also the second worst quarter for the company since Q3 2022. Meanwhile, the company produced 408,386 vehicles. Let’s take a little closer look at the vehicle deliveries, including some estimates on model split. Note that for each chart or graph, I’m including a static image and an embedded graph — the former show better on some devices and the latter show better on others. We see Tesla’s overall long-term quarterly sales here. Q1 2025 was Tesla’s worst quarter in years, but the company almost repeated that in Q1 2026. Also, note that Q1 2025 sales were down considerably due to all of its Model Y production lines being shut down temporarily to launch the new Model Y. In the long-term context, the Q1 2026 numbers don’t look good. This is as far as Tesla goes in providing us with a model split. Basically, Tesla Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck sales are negligible — and the Model S and Model X are now being discontinued anyway. The Model 3 and Model Y are what drive the company’s sales and profits, but Tesla doesn’t tell us how they are split out, so this is where we get to some estimates. Displayed in a few different ways, this is how we’re estimating the full model split. In short, though, none of the models are booming in sales. As the highest volume model, the Y is again the main driver of sales drops and sales increases. Would one say that Q1 sales were pretty good considering the EV sales drop in the US and China, or would one say this is another sign of trouble for the company? Again, Q1 2025 was a horrible quarter for Tesla, but there was a bit of a reason for it with the production pause, and Q1 2026 was barely any better. Unless something significant changes, I would assume 2026 will show another sales drop rather than a continued increase over 2025. And 2025 was already lower than 2024, and 2024 lower than 2023! That 20 million sales in 2030 target is looking tougher and tougher.
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