California's EV carpool era is coming to an end. Will it unleash traffic chaos?
There will soon be fewer vehicles taking the HOV, or carpool, lanes in California as the program that allowed electric and hybrid cars to use the lanes, regardless of passenger count, is ending. (Santiago Mejia/S.F. Chronicle)
In a memorable episode of the HBO series "Curb Your Own Enthusiasm," comedian Larry David hires a sex worker to ride shotgun in his Toyota Prius, from the courthouse in downtown Los Angeles to Dodger Stadium.
The gimmick is expensive. Escort "Monena" charges $750, plus a baseball ticket, for her time. But viewers familiar with L.A. traffic called David a genius. With a passenger in tow, he could access the fast-moving carpool lane, bypassing a miserable jam on Highway 110 to make the game.
It was high comedy based on an absurd, if relatable, situation. And in a sort of life-imitating-art way, David's joke would set the course of history. As the era of carpool lane privileges for low-emission cars draws to a close this week, it's worth revisiting how it all started. The real story doesn't involve an escort with a well-honed negotiating prowess. Yet it's nearly as strange.
Flash back to early 2004, when Larry David's then-wife, environmentalist Laurie David, was sitting at a table in a San Francisco hotel, with "Seinfeld" actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Democratic Assembly Member Fran Pavley of Agoura Hills, the late state Sen. (and Prius owner) John Burton and other progressive influencers. Dreyfus and Laurie David were both board members of the Natural Resources Defense Council. The whole coalition was brainstorming ideas to get more people into electric and hybrid vehicles.
Though carpool lane privileges for low-emission cars ends this week, there will be a 60 day grace period before tickets are issued for violations. (Santiago Mejia/S.F. Chronicle)
"My husband at the time had a show where he would drive a Prius," Laurie David recalled in an interview with the Chronicle. "We were always trying to get people to drive Priuses."
They alighted on a simple, but highly effective perk: Give these Prius drivers access to carpool lanes, regardless of how many people are in the car.
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Twelve days after Larry David's "Car Pool Lane" sketch aired, Pavley introduced a bill that would spare him from ever having to pick up another passenger. Spun off a 1999 law that rewarded solo drivers of battery-electric or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles with white "carpool stickers," this version applied to a much wider audience. Crucially, the bill allowed hybrids - namely Priuses - to enter the fast "high occupancy" lanes.
What began as a clever plan would soon spawn a new wave of environmentalism in California, with everyone from actors to ride-hail drivers gravitating to low-emission vehicles as lawmakers set aggressive goals to lower the state's carbon footprint.
A car glides through the HOV lane for the Bay Bridge heading toward San Francisco. (Santiago Mejia/S.F. Chronicle)
"Allowing hybrids in the carpool lane was this perfectly-timed gateway," Pavley said, describing how the sticker program incited an EV boom, and a slew of societal changes. Besides stoking demand, the law helped establish Toyota Priuses, and later, Teslas, as mass-market brands with a certain aura: They symbolized concern for humanity and the environment. Auto dealerships started displaying these tree-hugger models in their showrooms. When legislators restricted the program by enacting more stringent tail pipe emission standards, consumers quickly adapted. Over time, more than a million motorists plastered carpool-entry decals on their bumpers.
Political leaders now worry that come Oct. 1, all of that progress could unravel.
That's when the carpool lane benefit, along with all the optimism and environmental virtue it signified, is set to end. Congress has declined to pass legislation to authorize an extension, and it seems no amount of advocacy from California politicians, or electric vehicle enthusiasts, can keep the program alive. A last-minute House Resolution by Rep. Mark DeSaulnier, D-Contra Costa County, would have classified low-emission vehicles as carpool lane eligible for another six years, but it stalled upon introduction in August. That same month, the Department of Motor Vehicles stopped issuing the colored decals that EV owners place on their cars for carpool lane admission and bridge toll discounts.
On Wednesday, everyone who drives an electric vehicle will be subject to the same occupancy rules as any other motorist. Officers from the California Highway Patrol will offer a 60-day grace period before they start citing violators.
HOV lane signs for the Bay Bridge in Oakland remind drivers of the requirements to use the lanes. (Santiago Mejia/S.F. Chronicle)
DeSaulnier said he hopes to spend that extra two months rallying support for his resolution.
"The idea was to get my bill, or another one like it, into the budget," he explained in an interview last Friday, by which point the possibility of any agreement on the budget looked dim. Already, Congressional Democrats and Republicans were bracing for a government shutdown.
Adopting a defiant tone, DeSaulnier said he would continue touting the advantages of EVs to anyone who listened. Transitioning drivers to a cleaner energy source is important for public health, he said, and it helps the U.S. compete with other countries that manufacture these cars.
Whether DeSaulnier can communicate that message across the aisle is an open question. Many of his fellow California Democrats accuse the Republican-led federal government of trying to hamstring a thriving EV market, out of disdain for blue states where the vehicles are popular. On the day the decals expire, Congress will also scrap federal tax credits for electric vehicles under the "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act. Collectively, these actions are part of a larger plan to promote fossil fuels.
With electric and hybrid vehicles no longer getting access to HOV lanes, unless they have three or more passengers, there's a concern gridlock could get worse in the other lanes, such as these feeding westbound for the Bay Bridge. (Santiago Mejia/S.F. Chronicle)
None of the machinations are lost on California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a long-time Tesla owner who recently chose an electric Rivian SUV as his official ride. Newsom warned that the federal government's "misguided decision" would create confusion and gridlock on freeways, while increasing smog as drivers revert back to internal combustion engines. The governor had a name for the resulting mess: "A Trump traffic jam."
In the Bay Area, EV drivers wait with gritted teeth for a change that could upend their commutes, and perhaps diminish their quality of life. A few who spoke with the Chronicle expressed bafflement at what they saw as the unwinding of California's environmental agenda.
"I really bought this vehicle for the sticker," Zouaoui Zazou, a Kensington resident who was charging his Tesla Model 3 at the El Cerrito Plaza station last week.
Before purchasing the car Zazou would pick up passengers for casual carpools across the Bay Bridge, but he said he's reluctant to try that again. Since he drives for Uber, transporting a carpooler essentially amounts to working for free.
Vehicles taking the HOV lane for the Bay Bridge heading toward San Francisco on Friday, Sept. 26, 2025. (Santiago Mejia/S.F. Chronicle)
But others say the decal incentive has served its purpose, and that it's becoming counterproductive. The goal to get more people in Teslas or Chevy Volts was always in tension with another environmental goal: to get people out of cars altogether. Moreover, critics of the sticker program said it favored consumers who can afford high-priced electric or plug-in cars, allowing them to clog lanes that should have prioritized traditional carpools or buses. When lawmakers sought to manage that problem by setting sticker quotas and tightening emission standards, transit advocates still weren't satisfied.
"Really, I'm concerned about the 40 people on a bus who are stuck behind one driver with a sticker, regardless of how the car is powered," said Carter Lavin, co-founder of the Transbay Coalition advocacy group. He believes that clean-air vehicles are so widespread, and ingrained in California culture, that they don't need any more state support.
"Diluting the power (and speed) of a carpool lane just inconveniences everybody else, including the buses and the people who are actually carpooling," Lavin said.
Pavley acknowledged these arguments, saying she understood the central flaw in the program she pioneered - that it does, indeed, accommodate people with enough disposable income to buy new electric cars. The former state lawmaker saw this play out first hand. She remembers getting calls from a top executive at Disney who was afraid to sell his Prius in the mid-2000s, lest he lose the decal that came with it, and the time he saved driving to work on Interstate 405 in Los Angeles. Pavley encouraged him to just buy a new electric car.
Despite its drawbacks, the decal program had demonstrably boosted sales of electric vehicles, which ultimately improved the air quality for everyone, Pavley said.
On Wednesday, everyone who drives an electric vehicle will be subject to the same occupancy rules for HOV lanes as any other motorist. (Santiago Mejia/S.F. Chronicle)
Now that so many Californians own fuel-efficient cars, some drivers share Newsom's fear of what could happen on Wednesday. As of August, 511,877 vehicles in the state have "active" decals according to the DMV. Forcing all of them to merge into general traffic will likely create gridlock, and potentially leave the carpool lanes empty, the doomsayers warn.
Still, the variables of human behavior are hard to predict.
"People are creatures of habit," said John Goodwin, a spokesperson for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, admitting that he's unsure how many drivers will voluntarily switch to a slower and more crowded lane on Wednesday. Even after the grace period, it's unclear to what degree the CHP will crack down on scofflaws.
Many owners of EVs may switch over to express lanes, which allow solo drivers to pay their way in through a toll system. In recent years transportation planners have steadily converted carpool lanes throughout the Bay Area into express lanes, on the idea that they help evenly distribute congestion. MTC's long-term vision for regional freeways includes continuous express lanes along Interstate 680 from San Jose to the Benicia-Martinez Bridge, and on Interstate 80 from the Carquinez Bridge to the Bay Bridge.
Such plans could take years to execute. In the near-term, commuters and transportation officials alike worry the abrupt end of carpool decals could lead to chaos and intolerable traffic snarls.
HOV Lane signs for the Bay Bridge in Oakland. (Santiago Mejia/S.F. Chronicle)
Some observers see an upside. As solo EV drivers leave the HOV lanes, those lanes will speed up, creating a different incentive structure. Commuters who, in the past, were motivated to purchase a clean-air vehicle may now feel compelled to drive together, or take the bus. Carpools, in their pure form, could make a comeback.
"For a person with an EV who is unsure what to do, there's a real simple solution," Lavin said. "Just pick someone up."
Ahsan Waqas, a Tesla owner from Richmond, considered the prospect warily.
"Well," he said, "Maybe I can wait at BART and see if two people want a ride."
After all, it worked for Larry David.
