Well, we don’t know exactly how much EU tariffs on EVs produced in Chinese hit different brands, but a new analysis from Transport & Environment (T&E) sure provides some strong implications that made my eyes pop. Scrolling through the report, I saw this chart and found it fascinating: First of all, I didn’t expect so much divergence here. Secondly, I did expect companies to be hit quite hard by these tariffs, but several don’t look to have been hurt by them — but that may be deceiving. (Also, note that the scales here are not the same for each automaker.) On that first point, clearly, BYD, Geely, and “other” Chinese companies did well; whereas SAIC and Tesla had serious sales declines following the tariffs. However, how much is that because of the tariffs? We simply don’t know. But we do know the tariffs didn’t make it easier for those companies to make sales in Europe. On the matter of Geely versus BYD, T&E also makes this point: “Lower tariffs (17%) for BYD allowed BEV sales to grow, while higher tariffs for SAIC (35%) led to a decrease.” BYD’s sales, in fact, more than doubled year over year. Tesla, though, had some of the weakest penalties, but there were other factors at play. For one, the brand faced certain demand challenges in Europe. Additionally, though, it also had its Berlin factory where it could start producing vehicles for Europe and then reduce imports from China. On the second point, even though BYD, Geely, and “other” Chinese companies saw their sales rise (significantly) after the tariffs were introduced, we don’t know how much those sales would have risen without the tariffs. Also, in large part, these companies seemed to “eat” the tariffs, sacrificing their own profits more than growing market share. So, the tariffs may have had a significant effect even if sales still grew a lot. Another thing from the report that surprised me: China-made EVs account for 17% of EV sales in Europe. That’s quite a bit higher than I would have expected. However, that’s down from 22% in 2024. Volumes were similar in the two years, at around 350,000 units. Another graph that jumped out to me that wasn’t included in the press release yesterday is this one: That is huge growth in exports from Chinese OEMs. Also interesting that US OEM exports declined (ahem, Tesla), and EU OEM exports rose a bit themselves. “Chinese OEMs are turning to exports to absorb overcapacity. Europe is a key export destination (30%, incl. 8% for the UK), second to Asia-Pacific,” T&E writes. “EV tariffs worked (for EU and US OEMs), but have not stemmed Chinese OEM’s overcapacity-driven exports.” Now, although sales rose overall, these vehicles’ share of sales declined. That can be the topic of my last chart for today from this report. It is interesting to see these two charts back to back. It’s an interesting report. Check the full thing out in order to dive in further. All images courtesy of T&E.
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