Image: Daniel BönnighausenThe timing of the survey is significant. Fraunhofer ISI said it concluded the survey at the end of 2025, shortly after the European Commission presented its draft Automotive Package before Christmas. The package is expected to introduce some easing of CO₂ regulations. However, the subsequent debate over whether the Commission’s proposals go far enough—or should be expanded further to support the automotive industry—is not reflected in the survey findings.Precisely because the survey results are unaffected by the latest political debate, the statements from car manufacturers are particularly noteworthy. According to Fraunhofer ISI, many German companies say they have already made substantial progress in shifting their automotive business towards electric mobility. “More than 20% of the companies surveyed reported that they are already fully oriented toward e-mobility, and another nearly 40% said that their transformation status is advanced,” the researchers noted.This group is referred to in the announcement as ‘pioneers or fast transformers,’ which, by implication, also means there are ‘laggards and slow transformers.’ Approximately one in four companies has already begun its transformation but, according to self-assessment, remains in the early stages. One in eight of the surveyed companies has not yet undertaken any realignment towards electric mobility.A nuanced picture also emerges regarding investments: “In total, more than three-quarters reported that they had conducted innovation activities over the last three years. These were focused on electric mobility and digitalisation. At the same time, however, more than one-third of the innovators mentioned innovation activities in combustion engine technology,” Fraunhofer ISI stated.Pioneers advocate for maintaining CO₂ regulationsHowever, there was consensus on which political measures companies expect from the current German government to support the transformation towards electric mobility, based on the political agenda outlined in the coalition agreement. Given limited resources, 80 per cent of the surveyed companies called for increased state investment in education, research, and innovation. Additionally, ‘80% also called for lower electricity prices, but across the board, not only in industry.’Around three-fifths of respondents also view the widely debated easing of CO₂ fleet targets in German politics critically. According to the study, companies that are already advanced in their transition to electric mobility largely support maintaining the current CO₂ targets, including the planned 2035 target of 0 g/km for new passenger cars. Companies with a slower transformation pace, by contrast, tend to favour more gradual regulatory changes. Fraunhofer ISI therefore concludes that additional efforts by the German government to weaken EU CO₂ rules would primarily benefit companies lagging behind in the transition rather than firms that have already invested heavily in electric mobility.This could have drastic consequences for the industry. “n their strategy paper, the researchers describe the risk that the position taken by the German federal government could slow down the industry’s innovation dynamics. This would squander the German automotive industry’s chance to be among the leaders in the global innovation race toward electric mobility,” Fraunhofer ISI stated.“Weakening existing phase-out targets would put those companies at a disadvantage that have already made early and extensive investments in electric mobility. Instead of frequent readjustments, the authors recommend stabilizing the existing policy mix and supplementing this with specific add-ons, in particular measures to boost demand for electric vehicles and reliable framework conditions for investments along the value chain.”During the discussions, the research teams also asked how companies assess the credibility of politicians in their commitment to the transformation towards electric mobility. The political will for electric mobility was perceived as strongest in March 2022, when Tesla inaugurated its Giga Berlin in Brandenburg. However, around a year and a half later, the mood had already shifted. When the then traffic-light coalition abruptly ended the electric car subsidy during the constitutionally mandated budget crisis, it was interpreted in the industry as a sharp decline in political will. Since then, credibility has only slowly recovered and remains at a low level—posing the risk that companies may no longer fully trust political measures and hesitate to invest.“Especially now, when CO2 fleet limits and the phase-out strategy for combustion engine technology are being discussed in Germany and at the EU level, Germany should not just listen to the appeals of slow transformers, but also take those companies seriously that have already invested in electric mobility,” says Prof. Karoline Rogge, who coordinates the project and is a professor at the University of Sussex as well as deputy head of the Policy and Society Department at Fraunhofer ISI. “Because it is precisely these companies that can bring Germany back to the forefront of the global innovation race and strengthen the international competitiveness of its automotive industry. Our findings show that repeatedly changing course only weakens planning certainty and Germany’s innovative strength in future technologies. The transformation of the German automotive industry will only succeed with credible and reliable political backing.”The results of the company survey stem from a pilot study within the EMPOCI research project, funded by the European Research Council at the University of Sussex and conducted in collaboration with the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI. The study was based on 74 telephone and online interviews with executives from vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, and other companies within the automotive ecosystem.fraunhofer.de
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