If you are a home owner, the last word you want to hear is “subsidence,” which is defined as the gradual caving in or sinking of an area of land. It means the foundation beneath your structure is no longer capable of handling its weight and is slowly settling. It is happening in Miami, which is built on porous limestone that dissolves — albeit slowly — when exposed to salt water. Sometimes the damage is covered by insurance, but companies in the insurance business don’t like risks they can’t control, so as the number of subsidence claims rises, the tendency in the industry is to either exclude coverage for damage from subsidence or raise the premiums substantially. The model for the industry is to take in more money than it pays out. Otherwise it is a charity, not a business. It’s quintessential capitalist theory in operation. It turns out that the soil in most of greater London is clay, which is highly sensitive to variations in moisture content. With more moisture it becomes almost plastic, allowing it to be easily molded. It is the primary component in pottery and bricks. But when it gets dry, it shrinks. That’s what is happening in many parts of London today, as the city has suffered through five intense heatwaves this summer. According to Bloomberg, insurance claims associated with subsidence hit a record in the second quarter of this year, based on data provided by the Association of British Insurers. On average, households claimed £20,000 ($27,200) for the risk, more than in any previous quarter and a 15 percent jump from the same period in 2025. Laura Hughes, head of ABI, said, “We expect to see more subsidence cases because of the hot weather.” In the four years through 2025, insurance payouts for subsidence damage soared roughly 90 percent to reach a record £297 million, data provided by ABI shows. On Reddit, London residents reported “horrendous cracking” in their homes, and “doors sticking” due to subsidence. One said it was “genuinely scary” to discover that their kitchen had moved as the foundations of the home shifted. Another person described the response of a structural engineer they contacted for help. “Before I could finish explaining he laughed and said, ‘You and 20,000 other people in southeast London’. Otso Lahtinen, chief executive of Geobear, an engineering firm that is often called in to repair damage caused by subsidence, told Bloomberg, “It’s crazy, what’s happening now. It’s the new norm, and it seems it will happen more often in the next 20-30 years. It’s a pretty severe situation. If you’re looking to trade, sell, or buy property, this is a trend you can’t ignore.” Data provided by Aviva, one of the largest insurers in the UK, show that the areas of London that are most at risk are some of the UK capital’s most sought after, namely the boroughs of Westminster, as well as Kensington and Chelsea. While subsidence has been affecting homes in the British capital for decades, climate change is making it worse. London clay is especially sensitive to fluctuations in moisture, expanding when wet and contracting when dry. The most vulnerable properties are Victorian or Edwardian homes that were built directly onto the upper layers of London clay. By contrast, modern office buildings in the City of London and Canary Wharf have much deeper foundations and are therefore less exposed to such risks. London Mayor Sadiq Khan has warned that the city will need to turn to private investors to help fund the cost of dealing with the impact of rising temperatures. His office estimates that London now faces an annual bill as high as £36 billion into the 2050s in order to prepare the city for what climate change has in store. “The impact that climate change is having is undeniable,” said Hughes of the ABI. Subsidence can devalue a property by up to 25 percent, according to the Federation of Master Builders. The traditional engineering fix for subsidence damage, known as underpinning, can cost anywhere from £20,000 to more than £100,000 per building. Insurance Claims Are Rising The development represents a particular risk to insurers, with subsidence claims making up an ever larger chunk of the payouts they need to make to customers. The phenomenon poses “a significant challenge for UK home insurers,” said Cherry Chan, a partner at Deloitte, which has warned that UK home insurers risk losses in 2026 due in part to the trend. Along with flash floods and wildfires, subsidence is becoming “an increasingly material climate-related risk,” Chan said. It requires that insurers display “careful consideration in long-term exposure and risk management strategies.” Extreme weather patterns in 2026 “will not only impact more new claims in this year, but could cause claims deteriorations for unsettled subsidence claims reported in the past,” she added. The British Geological Survey indicates 1.8 million properties, or about 5 percent of all the buildings in the UK, are “highly likely or extremely likely” to be susceptible to shrink/swell subsidence by 2070. Under a higher emissions scenario, the figure rises to 4.2 million, or 11 percent, of British properties. Areas most at risk are densely-populated parts of London, Kent and south-east of England. The development has the potential to lead to “increased insurance premiums, depressed house prices and, in some cases, engineering works to stabilize land or property, replacement of utility pipeworks and unstable transport infrastructure,” according to the BGS. A Change No One Wants To Acknowledge If you are paying attention, you might have noticed that something is going on. There were tornadoes on Long Island last week — which is definitely not normal. 90,000 people were forced from their homes by wildfires in Reno recently. The Danube River is so low, ship traffic has been interrupted and nuclear power plants in Hungary are losing their access to river water to cool their operations. Through it all, the rogue US administration is hellbent on pumping more oil and methane while denying there is any connection whatsoever between burning fossil fuels and an overheating planet. The UK is considering backing away from its EV mandates, exhaust emissions standards, and is talking about more drilling in the North Sea. German automakers are pushing their government to water down its emissions standards as well. The only one who seems to get it is Ursula van der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, who called this week for an end to the use of fossil fuels. Economist Paul Krugman has written recently that only a significant increase in the cost of fossil fuels will convince consumers to end their love affair with oil, methane, and coal. Thanks to the hare-brained antics of the alleged US president, that is exactly what is happening. Regular reader Jock Gill, who lives in the bucolic town of Peacham in northern Vermont, says fuel oil prices this winter could hit $5.80 a gallon or higher. If that happens, Vermonters will be spending thousands of dollars more to heat their homes than in past years, which could drive the transition to heat pumps. The Earth doesn’t care about who is using which bathroom or what country is raising tariffs on its neighbors. The laws of physics are immutable and apply no matter what anyone believes. A hotter atmosphere means extreme weather and hotter temperatures in cities and on farms. No amount of bloviating about wind turbines or beautiful clean coal can offset the imperatives of science, as humans will soon learn to their sorrow. It is troubling that parts of London are sinking, but that is really the least of our worries. To paraphrase Smokey The Bear, “Only YOU can prevent climate change.” Hat tip to Are Hansen.
