The second quarter of 2026 saw plugin EVs take 67.0% share in Sweden, up from 62.5% in Q2 2025. BEV share grew strongly year on year (YoY), and PHEVs also grew. Overall Q2 auto volume was 79,891 units, up some 22% YoY. The Volvo EX40 was again the best-selling BEV in Q2. 2026 Q2 auto sales saw combined plugin EVs take 67.0% share in Sweden, with full electrics (BEVs) at 42.0% and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) at 25.0%. These figures compare YoY against 62.5% combined, 36.2% BEVs and 26.4% PHEVs. BEV volume was up by a substantial 42% YoY, whilst PHEV volume was up by 16%. BEV volume gains were helped by much stronger YoY performance by Kia, BMW, Toyota, and Volvo, mainly due to their new (or refreshed) model offerings. Volkswagen Group performance was significantly down YoY, perhaps due to temporary market-allocation priorities. The new-for-2026 BEV incentive scheme (targeting below-average-income households in rural areas) seems to be working. Based on current trends, we may see Sweden achieve a BEV share of close to 50% in the final months of this year. The trajectory of BEVs was on a decent trend up until late 2022, but had stagnated since (see graph below). Now it is back to growth, finally. Combined ICE share now stands at 25.7%, and will continue to diminish throughout the year. Best-Selling BEV Models Yet again, the Volvo EX40 won the top spot, a consecutive run of 4 quarters. It registered 3,334 units. In second was the Tesla Model Y with 2,450 units (almost exactly the same volume as Q1). In third was the Volvo EX30, with 1,905 units. This is exactly the same top 3 ranking that we saw in Q1, and much of the rest of the top 10 is similar, with just slight shuffling. Standout performances came from the refreshed BMW iX3 which came in 7th (1,198 units), initially appearing in late Q1, and now up to strong volumes. Some of this will be temporary pent-up demand, but it should stabilize at a higher level than the previous version (which rarely sold above 300 units in any one quarter). The new Kia PV5 – which debuted in late Q4 – also climbed steadily to 12th spot (736 units). Its siblings, the EV5 and EV4 saw similar growth trends, landing in 14th and 16th spots, respectively. The biggest gains came to the new Kia EV2, which had only seen single-digit showroom volumes in Q1, but shot up to 17th spot, and 647 units, in Q2. There were a few new debutants in Q2, including (in order of volume): The Subaru Uncharted; Subaru Outback; Cupra Raval; Porsche Cayenne; Xpeng P7+; Lexus ES; and Zeekr 7GT. The most affordable of these is the Cupra Raval, currently only offered in the larger 52 kWh battery variant, starting from 368,900 SEK (33,400€) before incentives. The smaller 37 kWh version will only be offered in the Autumn, starting from 320,900 SEK (29,070€). This is not very keen pricing (the 37 kWh price starts at 26,000€ in Spain, for example), but likely VW Group is relying on the Swedish incentive scheme to make the price more accessible. Again this a case of the incentives actually going straight into the pockets of legacy auto’s shareholders and execs, rather than actually making BEVs more affordable for ordinary consumers. Otherwise known as corruption, something rampant in the European ruling classes (though not as rampant as in the US). Outlook BEVs are finally back to a growth trajectory in Sweden, and PHEVs are still holding up for now, with HEV and ICE options seeing steady declines. The Swedish macroeconomy has cooled over the past 3 quarters, though figures for the recent quarters are constantly being revised (compare this with last quarter’s report) – this is concerning, and suggests political manipulation. The latest narrative is that YoY GDP growth stood at 2.3% in 2025 Q3, 2.0% in Q4, and 2.0% in Q1. Headline inflation stands at 0.7% as of the end of Q2, from 0.5% as of Q1 end. Interest rates have been flat at 1.75% since late September. Manufacturing PMI rose to a decent 58.3 points in June, a steady rise from 56.4 points in March. What are your expectations for the Swedish auto market, and the EV transition, this year? Which models will prosper? Please share your thoughts and perspectives in the discussion below.
