Reports point to a looming motor oil shortage tied to the Iran conflict. An alleged leaked AutoZone memo estimates a 40% drop in lubricant supply. Shop owners say prices are climbing, and stocking up at home may be smart. It’s easy to see the effect of the conflict in Iran at the gas pump. Prices keep going up, and every mile driven is more expensive than the last. What most consumers probably didn’t expect was to see the effect on their oil change habits, but if a bevy of new reports is correct, that’s exactly what we’re all in for. Some indicate a motor and diesel oil supply drop of 40 percent. Over the past week, reports about looming motor oil shortages have started popping up from multiple directions. The most pointed of them surfaced today, when a person posted what looks like an internal memo to the Southeast region of AutoZone stores. Read: Oil Crisis In Cuba Hits Home As Trump Amps Up Pressure In the memo, the writer says, “Realistic, middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category [lubricating fluids] to drop by 40%.” That figure continues to pop up, and it basically means one thing. Oil changes, transmission fluid changes, really anything that lubricates your car is about to get more expensive. We reached out to AutoZone for comment, but haven’t received a reply at the time of writing. Dropping this from a throwaway account… by u/JustInTheMiddleOfIt in Cartalk Shops on the ground are already bracing for it. Speaking to a local repair store here in Little Rock, Arkansas, a general manager tells Carscoops that “They are being very secretive about all that. They say the price is for sure gonna go up, but they don’t know how the mainline volume will be affected yet.” Another shop owner in DC said on Monday that Mobil and Shell informed Costco and Walmart that they’re out of product to ship. Later that same day, he posted what appears to be a bulletin focused on managing supply chain issues. Guidance included partially substituting 0W-8 oil with 0W-16 and then doing the same for 0W-16 with 0W-20. These are just the most recent and easily accessible examples of the current concern. This is a PANT Bulletin – but I expect a further move as supply shortens pic.twitter.com/1PPZHwWPqi— Costa Kapothanasis (@CostaKapo) May 12, 2026 The trail goes back further than this week. At the beginning of April, a member of the ToyotaNation forum said, “about 40% of global GTL Group 3 base oil production is offline as of three weeks ago due to the ongoing situation in the Middle East.” Typically, a general forum post doesn’t really mean much, but when combined with recent reports, things start to add up. Speaking to ABC 13 in Las Vegas, another shop owner said, “Unfortunately I might have to up [my prices] a dollar or two, but for right now I’m trying to keep the prices the same to try and help out the customers, even if I’m taking a dollar or two loss on the oil changes.” That goodwill can’t last forever. It might be time to stock up if you do your own oil changes, and if you prefer taking it to a shop, just know that the out-the-door price might be a bit higher than last time. Photos Google Maps, Mobil1
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