Hi Zach,
Here is a crazy but educationally entertaining story.
Looking at how VinFast will target 300,000 here is a proposal based on educated guesses
Global 2026 model UPDATE
Vietnam: 110,000 – its their country, they can force their market to buy, the socialist party can literally force the market via subsidies etc. Also they have GSM
India: 60,000 – this number just based on market size and sales performance since it started
Indonesia: 50,000 – an operating plant, most number of dealers, Indonesia can beat India
Thailand: 40,000 -strong EV policy, intense Chinese competition.
Malaysia: 28,000 – cheap fuel even more cheap electricty
Philippines: 12,000 – ugh…this is half of what Toyota sells…so maybe not…GSM will sell 2500 so need to generate
United States: 3,000 – stupid Trump tariffs, no north Carolina plant,
Canada: 4,000 – just because they are Canada
Europe: 8,000
Total: 310,000
This keeps the 300,000 thesis intact — but shifts the burden clearly to Asia.
