Saturday is the day to watch the sky at Interlagos. Formula 1’s official forecast for the Sao Paulo GP gives a 50% chance of rain on Saturday, November 7, most likely after 2 PM and possibly lasting into the evening. That window lands right on top of qualifying, which starts at 3 PM local time, so the session that sets Sunday’s grid carries the biggest risk of the weekend.

The warning is substantial. The official forecast says that “if rain does occur, it could be significant,” and it adds that some streets in the city could flood and standing water could form on the track. Even without a storm, gusts could reach 50 km/h (31 mph), and strong winds will affect drivers in the braking zones.

Sunday doesn’t look much different either. Race day should be cool and possibly unsettled, with temperatures between 13 C and 19 C (55 F to 66 F) and a 40% chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Still, the timing of Saturday’s threat makes qualifying the session most likely to turn out chaotic.

Max Verstappen didn’t hide his excitement at Thursday’s press conference. The Red Bull driver, who won from 17th at Interlagos in 2024, recalled “crazy races” there, including wins from the front and from the back in the rain. “It’s looking like there’s a chance of rain again, so that’s exciting,” he said.

Interlagos makes its own weather, and the Audi F1 team explained how this week. Two reservoirs sit on either side of the circuit and put a lot of moisture into the air, and sudden temperature shifts can help storms form.

The track also sits on a hillside about 800 meters above sea level, which pushes damp air upward, where it cools and falls as rain.

That’s not just a theory. Audi pointed out that wet weather has been a major factor in qualifying here in three of the last four seasons. In 2024, a heavy storm pushed qualifying back to Sunday morning, and a year later the FIA issued a rare level 4 rain warning for Saturday.

Last year’s Sao Paulo GP, though, ran in dry conditions, with Lando Norris winning for McLaren ahead of Antonelli and Verstappen. However, this year could be a different story. PlanetF1, writing on November 4, put the risk at 60% for final practice and 30% for qualifying, with Sunday’s race facing a 50-60% chance.

Friday’s practice is expected to give teams a dry track. The official forecast calls for mostly cloudy, dry conditions, with a 30% chance of rain mainly in the early morning and at night.

Williams warned that the weather could leave teams with little representative dry running before qualifying and the race, which makes Friday’s laps worth more than usual.

There’s no sprint this year either, so teams get a third practice session at 11:30 AM Saturday. Verstappen said the extra setup time “might be good or might be bad.” If you only watch one session live this weekend, make it qualifying.

The rain talk on Thursday quickly turned to software. Bruna Parreira of Globo TV asked the drivers whether they worried that the 2026 cars might run into more problems in the wet, after software issues in the rain in Malaysia. Verstappen didn’t miss a beat: “I installed antivirus on my car, so I’ll be fine.”

He then teased Racing Bulls driver Arvid Lindblad, reminding him that both teams use the same power unit. The laughs covered a real problem from earlier this season.

During the wet race in Malaysia, a power unit software bug appeared, and the race got underway only after the FIA sent teams new software about 20 minutes later.

Nikolas Tombazis, the FIA’s single-seater director, said he could guarantee that this specific bug wouldn’t return but couldn’t rule out every bug. He’d already admitted that the FIA hadn’t been able to test the 2026 cars enough in wet conditions beforehand.

Fernando Alonso pictured exactly where a glitch would hurt most. “Hopefully not, because that is quite steep uphill, you know, after the last corner,” said the two-time champion, who added that he believes the problems were understood after Malaysia.

Not everyone sees the clouds as bad news. Alpine’s Franco Colapinto said Brazil’s rain always brings new chances for his team, and home hero Gabriel Bortoleto said the weather can be crazy and anything can happen at Interlagos.

Mercedes may need some luck, too, since the team must beat Ferrari by three points this weekend to seal the Constructors’ title.

Antonelli arrives with nothing left to prove and nothing left to protect. Verstappen arrives as the man who loves this place most when it’s wet. Somewhere over the lakes, a storm may be deciding who starts where.

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