As I wrote the other day, gas prices are up 56% in the United States since the US first bombed Iran. So, it’s not like things are going swimmingly in this industry. However, as several analysts and observers have been saying, we haven’t seen anything yet! Countries have been relying on oil reserves to manage the crisis and keep oil and gas prices from spiking in a truly shocking way. However, as those reserves get drained and the Strait Of Hormuz remains blocked, well, things could get shocking quick. HFI Research is an investment research company that claims expertise in the energy sector, especially oil and natural gas. In its opinion, the first week of June is going to be a critical turning point for the oil industry unless things change significantly soon. Unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened, the firm predicts “real panic.” That would include panic buying and hoarding in countries across the world. Oil inventories will just be too low by then. Note that this isn’t the consensus across the analyst community, though. Many think things will remain fairly stable, or even improve. Frankly, many in the financial community like being optimistic and just remain optimistic that everything will get worked out. Who would like a serious crisis arise? Who would be so reckless and obstinate? Come on, when have wars ever been disastrous, illogical disruptions that drag on and on for years? I have no clue if the Strait Of Hormuz will open tomorrow, or if it will still be closed at the end of summer. None of us do. Clearly, compromises are not being reached and concessions are not being made, but maybe a breakthrough will come tomorrow. Maybe no one in power in this war wants to see a huge disaster in the oil markets? Or maybe we’re facing irreconcilable differences and stubborn political leaders who don’t want to give in? Maybe both sides keep expecting that the other is bluffing and are going to wait for them to give in for weeks or months to come? Maybe the animosity is just growing and things will get worse before they get better? Well, June is around the corner, so we don’t have to wait too long to find out what happens and whether HFI Research is correct if the Strait Of Hormuz does remains closed. What are your expectations?
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