A study by the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University comes to a rather startling conclusion. Despite all the roadblocks put in the way of the EV revolution by the present US administration, the researchers predict EV sales in the US will quadruple from 8 percent today to 32 percent in 2030. Absent the headwinds induced by federal policies, that number would have been closer to 48 percent, they claim. While the lower figure is lamentable, it is still an extraordinary prediction, given how legacy US automakers are backpedaling furiously from their prior EV ambitions. “In the long run, everything’s going in the direction of market-based adoption, despite the moves by the Trump administration that reduce pressure for EV sales,” said Elaine Buckberg, senior fellow at the Salata Institute, one of the report’s authors and a former chief economist for General Motors. The report is entitled “Simulating Impacts of Proposed Trump Policy Changes on Electric Vehicle Adoption” and was released in July. It was written by Buckberg, James Stock, and Cassandra Cole. The researchers analyzed the impact of several regulatory and legislative steps taken by the government since January 2025, including the revocation of tax credits for purchase of an electric car and installation of new charging equipment. In addition, the government eliminated restrictions on tailpipe emissions and revoked California’s ability to impose stricter tailpipe emission standards than the federal government requires. Several of these moves are being challenged in court. Buckberg and team modeled each step and found the one with the biggest impact was removing the EV tax credit, which cut $7,500 off the price of a new electric vehicle. That alone lowered the projected market share of electric cars in 2030 by 6.2 percentage points, the researchers found. Buckberg said the analysis shows the administration’s moves will slow but not stop an expected acceleration in EV adoption, because many prospective buyers would buy the cars even without it. What will really drive the adoption of electric cars, according to the researchers, are long term changes that will make them more competitive with gasoline vehicles. They suggested the maturation of battery technology will allow automakers to offer EVs with longer range without increasing prices. In addition, they believe the way people use their electric cars is changing. Because many of the early cars like the first generation Nissan LEAF had limited range — often less than 100 miles — people tended to treat them as second cars for short trips around town. However, since EVs now come with more range, and, because public fast charging options have expanded significantly due to access to the Tesla Supercharger network, they are now being used the same way as conventional cars. The biggest hurdle to adoption is consumer concern about charging infrastructure, Buckberg said. As that infrastructure grows nationally, gaps in charger coverage will narrow. She suggests making charger status and prices more readily available in charging apps, which would reduce range anxiety and could potentially boost EV sales by as much as 6 percent. Sharp eyed readers will note that is nearly the same as the percentage reduction caused by the cancellation of the EV purchase tax credit. “Concerns about charging are the biggest hold back to EV adoption,” Buckberg said. “If we continue to see improvements in battery cost and battery density translating to lower EV prices, when it becomes price equivalent or very close, it becomes much more attractive. If you are doing a road trip, you have at least 300 miles (480 kilometers) of range and can go to a highway charger that takes 10 to 15 minutes, it becomes a more perfect substitute.” Another advantage of price parity is it could open the eyes of potential buyers to the traditional benefits of electric cars: fast but silent driving, reduced maintenance costs, and freedom from spikes in the cost of gasoline. For those of us who have already made the transition to an EV, regenerative braking is also a big plus we have learned to appreciate. “The EV tax credit — one of the things that’s gotten the most focus — will become less and less relevant as the price gap narrows,” Buckberg said. “Our research shows that charging is by far the most cost effective lever. Real time data is the least expensive lever of all, and something states can act on right now.” Is The EV Revolution Over In the US? Most of us would jump for joy if EV sales amounted to a third of the US new car market by 2030. Yet all the indicators have been flashing red since January 2025. Stellantis no longer seems interested in electric vehicles. Ford has exactly one electric passenger car, which has not been updated significantly since it was introduced nearly seven years ago. GM has more battery electric models than any other US manufacturer, but it is converting its battery factories to making cells for energy storage — not EVs. Volkswagen was gung ho on its new Scout division, which was supposed to be a showcase for electric vehicles, but its pre-orders have been trending heavily toward a plug-in hybrid version that had been an afterthought. This week, its battery manufacturing arm known as PowerCo announced it will push back the start date of its new factory in St. Thomas, Ontario by two years. In a statement, Joel Karlsberg, the head of procurement for PowerCo Canada, said, “The St. Thomas gigafactory remains a cornerstone of our North American strategy. We are continuing to build now while determining how and when the facility scales over time. This is about getting the pacing right — not stepping back — to protect our long-term investment, support regional jobs, and position Canada, Ontario, and St. Thomas to benefit in a dynamic and evolving market.” It is unknown whether the batteries from that factory were intended for Scout vehicles, but Volkswagen currently manufactures no electric cars in North America, having ended production of the ID.4 in Chattanooga earlier this year. Does it sound like the company is putting its plans on hold until the next administration arrives in Washington? It sure seems that way. GM CEO Mary Barra told Fortune this month she expects EVs to account for 40 to 50 percent of sales by 2030, which is even more optimistic than the Harvard researchers dared to suggest. The company is also moving forward with its “all of the above” propulsion strategy that will include hybrids. So far as we can tell, the Voltec powertrain used in the Chevy Volt will remain locked away in a warehouse, where it has been for nearly a decade. How odd it is that GM refuses to leverage that technology. Ford is threatening to unleash a new electric midsize pickup truck soon on a platform it says will be the basis of other future electric models. And, not to be outdone, Hyundai says it will focus on extended range electric vehicles that have both a battery and a gasoline engine. The company will also introduce a battery electric version of the Santa Fe soon. For EVs in the US, it is the best of times; it is the worst of times. Either the future’s so bright we gotta wear shades, or EV drivers will become pariahs pursued by hulking pickup trucks filled with angry people brandishing assault rifles. With that as the background, we have to say the conclusions of the Harvard researchers seem like the best case scenario. “Full speed ahead, Mister Boatswain. Full speed ahead!”