The first quarter of 2026 saw plugin EVs take 64.9% share in Sweden, up from 58.0% in Q1 2025. BEV share grew strongly year on year (YoY), while PHEV share dipped slightly. Overall Q1 auto volume was 61,960 units, down some 2% YoY. The Volvo EX40 was the best-selling BEV in Q1. 2026 Q1 auto sales saw combined plugin EVs take 64.9% share in Sweden, with full electrics (BEVs) at 40.7% and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) at 24.1%. These figures compare YoY against 58.0% combined, 33.0% BEVs and 25.0% PHEVs. In volume terms, BEVs were up 21% YoY, whilst PHEVs were down by 6%. The new targeted BEV incentive scheme (open to below-average-income households in rural areas) came into effect in Q1 and helped give BEVs a decent boost. This allowed BEVs to overcome their typical Q1 dip in market share (see chart below), instead remaining roughly level compared to Q4 last year. Combustion-only vehicle market share fell YoY from 29.8% to 25.0% largely due to petrol and ethanol declines. Best-Selling BEV Models The Volvo EX40 was yet again Sweden’s top seller in Q1, its third consecutive quarter in the top spot. The Tesla Model Y came second, ahead of the Volvo EX30 in third. The Volkswagen ID.7 was squeezed out of the top 3 for the first time since Q3 2024. Let’s wait to see if this is anomalous, or a lasting trend. Big climbers were the Kia EV5, which debuted modestly back in November, and really stepped up in Q1, climbing impressively to 8th spot. Likewise its sibling the Kia PV3 minivan (also a November debut) climbed to just inside the top 20 (19th). Rounding out the top 20, the BMW iX3 is now returning to volume, though it is now a completely different vehicle, on a totally redesigned (and now very efficient) platform. There were several Q1 debutants on the Swedish market. The Volvo EX60 finally arrived, after several years of delay, with 107 units registered in Q1, around half of which were likely customer cars. The arrival of the EX60 is extremely significant because the Volvo XC60 has typically been inside Sweden’s overall top three for many years, and has been Sweden’s best selling PHEV for the past 5 years straight. Now that the EX60 BEV version is finally available, and with a totally refreshed interior and exterior design compared to the existing “old-look” PHEV XC60 (and not much more expensive than the latter) the EX60 should contribute to a measurable shift in Sweden’s overall powertrain share. Especially since the BEV is rather capable, with 611-810 km of WLTP range (depending on battery size), and 10-80% top ups in 16-19 minutes. Another debutant, with 106 units in Q1, was the new Toyota C-HR+ BEV. This is positioned below its BZ4X sibling on pricing, and thus should help significantly boost Toyota’s BEV sales. The C-HR model line is one of Toyota’s most established and best-sellers worldwide, so releasing the BEV version is a significant step for Toyota. Nevertheless, Toyota is still firmly towards the back of the pack of legacy car makers in terms of EV transition progress. Other debutants included the Nissan Micra (cousin of the Renault 5), with 55 initial units. The BYD Sealion saw 35 units, and the BYD Atto 2 saw 35 units. Kia also registered 6 initial units of the EV2 in Q1, though volume deliveries are not yet in full swing. Kia is a major player in the Swedish market, so we should expect this model to see decent demand in due course. Depending on pricing, I would estimate it to likely see volumes up to mid-hundreds (300-600) of units per quarter, since its size (4060 mm) is likely sub-optimal for Sweden’s typical tastes. There were a couple of debutants from Stellantis, but since Stellantis intentionally only plays at very low volume in Sweden, these won’t have much impact. Outlook The new targeted BEV incentive scheme, plus the long anticipated arrival of the Volvo EX60 should see a return of BEV progress in 2026. The Swedish macroeconomy has cooled over the past 3 quarters, from YoY GDP growth of 2.6% in 2025 Q3, to 1.8% in Q4, to 1.6% as of Q1 2026. Headline inflation stands at 0.6% as of the end of Q1, from 0.3% as of Q4 end. Interest rates have been flat at 1.75% since late September. Manufacturing PMI has hovered around 55 or 56 points for the past 3 quarters, without much uptick in the real economy. What do you think comes next for the EV transition in Sweden? How much difference do you think the 2026 BEV incentive scheme will really make? Please share your comments and thoughts in the discussion below.
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