Akio Toyoda introduces 16 new BEVs at global press conference. Source: TMC
A new report has called out the automotive industry for “spearheading global opposition” to climate policy action, with only US EV maker Tesla found to have both 1.5°C-aligned manufacturing targets and constructive climate policy engagement.
The report from InfluenceMap uses the outfit’s established climate engagement tracking platform and auto industry data from IHS Markit to rank 12 of the largest automakers in 10 key sales regions around the world.
The findings, measured in terms of policy engagement and progress towards Paris-aligned manufacturing targets out to 2029, betray an industry that has far from come to terms with the urgency of the shift to zero emissions vehicles.
Across the board, InfluenceMap says the automotive sector remains a “major opponent” of strong climate action globally, with eight of the 12 carmakers analysed scored as either a D or D+, with D or below indicating “obstructive policy engagement.”
Japanese carmakers Toyota and Nissan – which between them delivered the world’s first mass produced hybrid electric and all-electric cars, the Prius and the Leaf – came out of the report as “global laggards” in the production of battery electric cars.
By 2029, just 14% of Toyota’s worldwide production is forecast to be battery electric, while for Nissan it’s 22%, with fellow Japanese automaker Honda somewhere in-between at 18% worldwide battery electric vehicle production by 2029.
Toyota, too, comes in last on engagement with climate-related vehicle and energy policies and regulations, scoring a ‘D’ grade on InfluenceMap’s A-to-F system of measuring against Paris Agreement benchmarks. Nissan gets a D+.
InfluenceMap notes that Toyota uses the high emissions intensity of Japan’s power sector as justification for limiting electrification and promoting hybrids – which sounds similar to some of the lobbying tactics against fast-tracking EV uptake in Australia.
And while Japan plans to shift to 51% zero emissions power generation by 2030 with a mix of nuclear and renewables, the report notes Toyota has at one point dismissed that target as “not based on the reality of Japan.”
Meanwhile, some of the US and Europe’s major automakers aren’t doing much better.
Mercedez Benz, on the one hand, leads the EU on electric vehicle output, with around 56% of its production forecast to be zero emissions vehicles by 2029, in line with the IEA’s 1.5°C target for 57.5% of all vehicle sales to be zero-emission by 2030.
On the other hand, it ranks poorly on corporate engagement with climate policy, due to “mixed engagement” with Paris-aligned policy.
Volkwagen Group gets a slightly higher letter grade from InfluenceMap in the EU segment – a C for policy engagement – and a more somewhat promising forecast 43% of production being battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2029, although not up to IEA standards.
In the US, Ford Motor gets a C-, also for mixed climate policy engagement, and is forecast to achieve 36% BEV production by 2029, which falls well short of the IEA’s recommendations.
The clear star in the US and across the board is Tesla Motors, which gets a B grade for having broad alignment with, and support for, Paris-aligned climate policy and – of course – has only ever produced all-electric vehicles.
But Tesla can’t do the job on its own. Which means that, across the board, the world’s biggest car makers are not on track to do their bit to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Rather, based on current trajectories, InfluenceMap estimates that the entire global automotive sector will need to increase annual ZEV production by 80% in the 12 months from 2029 to 2030 to reach the IEA’s 1.5°C-aligned 2030 target.
In the meantime, vehicles with internal combustion engines will continue to dominate future production, with 68% of light-duty vehicles in production currently forecast to be ICE powered in 2029.
Of these ICE cars, growing SUV sales remain the biggest threat to sector decarbonisation, with their production forecast to increase out to 2029 and potentially cancel out the emissions reductions from increased BEV sales.
Ultimately, however, as InfluenceMap program manager Ben Youriev points out, it will be the climate policy settings of countries and regions that set the pace of the auto industry’s shift to zero emissions.
“The fact that Toyota and Nissan are the two lowest-scoring companies highlights the strong link between negative climate policy engagement and low levels of electric vehicle production forecasts,” Youriev said.
“In Toyota’s case, it continues to strongly push combustion-engine powered hybrids – even in highly developed markets like Japan and the US – despite recent warnings from IPCC scientists that ‘electric vehicles powered by low emissions electricity offer the largest decarbonization potential for land-based transport, on a life cycle basis.’
“Production forecasts show that the Japanese auto sector is lagging behind its key competitors in South Korea, Europe and the United States. This report indicates that the gap could widen unless there is a shift in direction from Japanese auto companies.”
Keyword: Toyota, Nissan called out for opposing climate action, only Tesla supports 1.5°C