Twenty-years ago the family sedan market was in rude health. A broad range of 11 models – including the Holden Commodore, Ford Falcon, Toyota Aurion, Mitsubishi Magna and Hyundai Grandeur – accounted for almost 35 per cent of all cars sold in Australia.
Fast forward to 2022 and there are just two family sedans left – the Kia Stinger and Skoda Superb.
In this context it’s easier to understand why Holden struggled so badly with its final Commodores. Because there can be no question – the final Australian-designed and built Commodores were truly world-class cars.
The design, production and dynamics of the 2006 VE Commodore were the best they had ever been and it only got better in 2013 with the arrival of the VF Commodore. The quality and breadth of the line-up made it a car that should have appealed to a wide cross-section of the community – the fleet-focused Omega, sporty SV6, muscular SS and luxurious Calais, plus the long-wheelbase Caprice, Ute and Sportswagon.
Instead, from the moment it arrived, sales of the Commodore were in a steep and ultimately terminal decline. This was arguably the best Australian-made car ever, but it arrived at precisely the wrong time to succeed.
In hindsight, the VE/VF Commodore program was doomed from the start, but at the time it seemed like the right move for a Holden that was riding high as the second best-selling brand in the country, only slightly behind a surging Toyota.
At least, that was the case in 1999 when the VE Commodore project began. Up until this point all previous Commodore models were based on some iteration of an Opel-based underpinning, but with the Opel Omega gone, Holden decided to develop its own platform for the Commodore that would seemingly carry it into a bright future.
This was the birth of the so-called ‘billion-dollar baby’, as Holden and General Motors poured in vast sums of money to develop the ‘Zeta’ platform that would, in theory, underpin a variety of GM models around the world.
The result was an all-new Commodore that was clearly a step above what had come before it, in every regard. This was a more polished and premium Commodore, a faster, sportier Commodore and a more versatile and multi-faceted Commodore.
Everything about it suggested it was the right car for the right time… everything that is, except an audience that still loved large cars.
Between the time Holden began the VE project in 1999 until the first car rolled down the production line in 2006, the family car market had begun to collapse. In ‘99 Australians bought more than 200,000 large sedans and wagons, but by ‘06 that number had dropped to slightly more than 130,000. Sales of the Commodore matched the overall market decline, dropping from more than 85,000 in ‘99 to just 56,000 in ‘06.
Unfortunately for Holden, by this stage it was committed to the path and by the time the VF Commodore arrived in 2013 the large car market had plummeted to just 47,066 annual sales. That’s a 77 per cent drop since ‘99 when the VE Commodore project began.
Despite the VF being an evolutionary improvement on the VE, sales continued to plummet, dropping to just 30,203 in its first full-year on sale (2014).
Holden had produced its best car, but sadly it seemed few Australians wanted to buy it.
Plans for the Zeta platform to underpin a variety of GM models ended up being scrapped too, after only the 2010-15 Chevrolet Camaro used it. Holden tried exporting the long-wheelbase Caprice to the US as a police car and the Commodore was rebadged as the Chevrolet SS, but both programs enjoyed limited success thanks to unfavourable exchange rates.
Ultimately, the VF Commodore ceased production in 2017 and was replaced, somewhat ironically, by the Opel Insignia, effectively bringing the Commodore story full-circle.
Except that’s not really the end of the VF Commodore story. With Holden now gone it seems some Australians are appreciating just how good the final locally-made model was with used car prices sky-rocketing.
At the time of publication the most expensive VF Commodore advertised on Autotrader.com.au is a 2017 SS-V Redline Motorsport Edition with an asking price of $259,000. There are another dozen – mostly SS-V Motorsport Editions – advertised for more than six-figures.
It seems the right time has finally arrived for the VF Commodore.
Keyword: Right car, wrong time: Holden Commodore VE/VF - Australia's best-made car was also the last | Opinion