is tesla’s total dominance of the electric vehicle market coming to an end?

Model 3s lined up at dock. Image: Harald Murphy

Tesla’s market dominance in the US electric vehicle sector is gradually waning, according to new insights from S&P Global Mobility. While Tesla still dominates the sector, with a 65 per cent market share of new EV sales, that’s down from 79 per cent in 2020 and could drop below 20 per cent by 2025.

Tesla’s waning dominance is down to a slow roll out of EVs in a more accessible price range below $50,000 – where Tesla currently does not really compete.

Currently, EVs continue to be purchased mostly at higher price points, but that’s largely due to the dominance of the luxury EV brand. Of the more than 525,000 EVs purchased in the first nine months of 2022, 340,000 were Teslas – the rest were divided among 46 different providers.

is tesla’s total dominance of the electric vehicle market coming to an end?

But as newer, more affordable options arrive Tesla’s share of the overall market is set to dive, according to the report.

The report predicts that the number of battery-electric nameplates will grow from the current 48 to 159 by the end of 2025, at a pace faster than Tesla will be able to compete with.

Seemingly to keep pace with market growth, Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed during a recent earnings call that the company is working on a lower priced car than the Model 3, but the timeline for its launch remains unclear.

Tesla’s model range is expected to grow to include Cybertruck in 2023 and eventually a Roadster, but largely the Tesla model lineup in 2025 will be the same models it offers today. (Tesla is also planning to deliver a commercial semi-truck by the end of 2022, but it would not be factored into light-vehicle registrations.)

“Before you feel too badly for Tesla, however, remember that the brand will continue to see unit sales grow, even as share declines,” said Stephanie Brinley, associate director, AutoIntelligence for S&P Global Mobility. “The EV market in 2022 is a Tesla market, and it will continue to be, so long as its competitors are bound by production capacity.”

Tesla has opened two new assembly plants in 2022 and is looking for the site of its next North American plant.

Who is the competition?

According to the report, EVs have gained a market share over the course of 2022 in the US, growing by 2.4 points over the year in registration data. That’s seen them reach 5.2% of all light vehicle registrations.

Among those lower price point competitors are Hyundai, Kia, Volkswagen, Ford, Chevrolet and Nissan. Meanwhile the luxury EV space has seen competitor growth including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Polestar, Lucid and Rivian. Those luxury EVs, in particular, will be a challenge for Tesla.

Tesla holds the top spot with four of the five most popular EV models by registration, while the sixth through tenth positions are held by the Chevrolet Bolt and Bolt EUV, the Hyundai Ioniq5, the Kia EV6, the Volkswagen ID.4 and the Nissan Leaf.

Through September, the Bolt has seen about 21,600 vehicles registered, Hyundai and Kia are in the 17,000-18,000-unit range, and VW approached 11,000 units. Including the tenth-place Leaf, no other EV has had registrations above 10,000 units over the first nine months of 2022.

Nonetheless, Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3 combined make up 56% of all EV registrations. According to the report, “the other 46 vehicles are competing for scraps until EVs cross the chasm into mainstream appeal.”

That transition may take some time, with a recent report by the same market insights company finding that the Heartland states are reticent to embrace EVs.

Production volumes are also hamstrung by a range of constraints, including factory capacity, a semiconductor shortage and other major supply chain issues.

“Evaluating EV market performance requires looking through a lower-volume lens than with traditional ICE products,” Brinley said. “But growth prospects for EV products are strong, investment is massive and the regulatory environment in the US and globally suggests that these are the solution for the future.”

is tesla’s total dominance of the electric vehicle market coming to an end?

What about Australia?

The numbers in Australia reflect a similar trend. EVs took a record 7.7% share of Australia’s new car market as of September, but Tesla was doing the majority of the heavy lifting. Nonetheless, 28 different EV models from 17 different brands achieved at least one registration last month.

The Tesla Model Y was Australia’s number three model outright and number one SUV in September, with 4359 deliveries. The Model 3 meanwhile was the market’s top-selling sedan, making it the number two passenger vehicle behind the Hyundai i30.

Overall, Tesla took an 82% overall share of the Australian EV market this year, followed by Hyundai and MG, as well as Polestar, BMW, Mercedes Benz, BMW and Kia, all of which took a measly share of the market.

Keyword: Is Tesla’s total dominance of the electric vehicle market coming to an end?

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