The start of summer driving season on Memorial Day will see even greater demand, according to JPMorgan, and higher prices at the pump.

On Friday, the national average for a gallon of gas swelled to $4.59, according to AAA. That’s about a quarter more than the previous all-time high of $4.33, reached on March 11, and a 50-cent jump from just a month ago.

AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross placed the blame on the high cost of crude oil, which has been hovering near $110 a barrel.

“Even the annual seasonal demand dip for gasoline during the lull between spring break and Memorial Day, which would normally help lower prices, is having no effect this year,” Gross said in a statement.

As we head into summer, analysts predict even higher prices at the pump: According to a report by JPMorgan, the nationwide average could surpass $6.20 a gallon by August. Currently, only California has crossed the $6 threshold, with the state average at $6.06.

Here’s what you need to know about gasoline prices, including how high they could get, what the White House is doing to turn it around and how you can save money on gas.

Why is gas so expensive?

The price of gas is inextricably linked to the cost of crude oil, from which it’s refined from. Every $10 increase in the cost of a barrel of crude adds almost a quarter to the price of a gallon at the pump.

As part of ongoing sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden announced a ban on Russian oil imports. Even though the US doesn’t import much crude from Russia, oil is traded on a global market, and any ripple affects prices all over the world.

When the European Union indicated last week it was proposing cutting off Russian oil, crude prices spiked and West Texas Intermediate, one of the main global oil benchmarks, rocketed past $110 a barrel.

Los Angeles County saw the average price of self-serve regular gasoline pass $6 a gallon. Zeng Hui/Getty Images

But Troy Vincent, senior market analyst at energy analysis firm DTN, says the war in Ukraine isn’t the only factor causing inflated fuel prices: Demand for gas plummeted during the pandemic, causing oil producers to put the brakes on production.
Even though demand is nearing pre-pandemic levels, producers are still gun-shy about increasing production. In April, OPEC fell short of its targeted production increase by 2.7 million barrels a day.

“We’ve had a supply-and-demand imbalance for a while,” Vincent told CNET. “And it will remain, regardless of whether this conflict goes away,” he said. 
In addition, gas companies have switched to the more expensive summer blend of gasoline, which can add between seven to ten cents per gallon. In the warmer months, gasoline is reformulated to prevent excess evaporation caused by higher temperatures outside.

How high will gas prices go?

Though the current $4.59 a gallon is a record dollar amount, adjusted for inflation it’s still below the 2008 peak of $4.14. But experts don’t believe we’ve seen the end of rising prices at the pump.

“This supply/demand dynamic, combined with volatile crude prices, will likely continue to keep upward pressure on pump prices,” AAA said in a statement Thursday.

Matt Smith, a data analyst with Kpler, told USA Today that an average of $5 per gallon is “by no means beyond the realms of possibility.”

“Gasoline prices will remain high as long as oil prices remain in the triple digits,” Smith said. “It’s going to hit the pocketbook far harder.”

With expectations of “strong driving demand” throughout the summer driving season from Memorial Day to Labor Day, JPMorgan analysts predicted the price could pass $6 a gallon before fall. The price per gallon could jump another 37% by August to a $6.20 per gallon national average, Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of commodities research, said in a memo Tuesday, Insider reported.

Refineries typically increase production in spring in expectation of higher need in summer, Kaneva said. But gasoline inventories have actually fallen to their lowest seasonal levels since 2019, in part because gas companies underestimated how quickly demand would bounce back from pandemic lows.

This week, Los Angeles joined San Francisco in breaking the $6 a gallon barrier. And for the first time, the average cost for a gallon surpassed $4 in all 50 states.

What is the government doing to lower gas prices? 

In late March, Biden announced he was releasing a million barrels of oil a day from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next six months. According to the White House, the unprecedented withdrawal could lower gasoline prices between 10 to 35 cents a gallon.

But insiders say it probably won’t help much in the long run.

“It will lower the oil price a little and encourage more demand,” Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Texas oil company Pioneer Natural Resources, told The New York Times. “But it is still a Band-Aid on a significant shortfall of supply.”

In April, the Environmental Protection Agency allowed for year-round sales of cheaper E15 gasoline, which contains a 15% ethanol blend. The impact will be modest as only about 2,500 of the more than 100,000 gas stations nationwide sell the higher-ethanol blend.

The White House continues to pressure US oil companies to increase drilling and production. Criticizing energy concerns for “sitting on” more than 12 million acres of federal land and 9,000 approved production permits, the administration would like companies to face fines if they leave wells leased from public lands unused.

In May, the Department of the Interior canceled the sale of a high-profile oil and gas lease that would have opened 1 million acres in Alaska to drilling, citing a “lack of industry interest in leasing in the area,” according to CBS News. The department also stopped two potential leases in the Gulf of Mexico because of what it called “conflicting court rulings that impacted work on these proposed lease sales.”

The government is also looking at getting energy products from other sources: The Biden administration has been working at improving diplomatic relations with Venezuela, which has been banned from selling oil to the US since 2018, and is negotiating another nuclear nonproliferation treaty with Iran, which would bring Iranian oil back onto the market.

There is also a bill in Congress that would pause the federal fuel tax, though it faces stiff opposition. Individually, Connecticut, Maryland and Georgia have suspended state gas taxes to help consumers, and at least 20 other states are considering similar moves.

How can drivers save at the gas station?

There’s not much we can do to change the price of gas, but drivers can cut down on unessential trips and shop around for the best price, even crossing state lines if it’s not inconvenient.

Apps like Gas Guru scan for the best gas prices in your region. Others, like FuelLog, track your car’s gas mileage and can help determine if it’s getting decent fuel economy. In addition, many gas station chains have loyalty programs, and credit cards have rewards programs that give cash back for gas purchases.

DTN’s Vincent advises against hoarding gas or other extreme measures but encourages budgeting more for gas. High energy prices have been a major contributor to inflation for a while, he said, and won’t be going away immediately.

“When the cost of crude rises, prices at the pump tend to reflect it very quickly,” he said. “But gas prices tend to linger higher longer even when crude falls.”

Keyword: Gas Could Reach $6.20 a Gallon This Summer, Analysts Warn. When Will the Price Go Down?

CAR'S NEWS RELATED

Best cars for a 'Love Bug' remake

Tennessee’s Yard Art The Thorndyke Special The Hot Rod The Hippie Van Jim’s Lamborghini Growing up, it’s safe to say my absolute favorite movie was Disney’s “The Love Bug.” As a kid living in a world before Pixar’s “Cars,” it was pretty much the best car movie. I loved ...

View more: Best cars for a 'Love Bug' remake

Audi timing belt tensioner prompts Utah bomb squad visit

An aftermarket timing belt tensioner found in a Salt Lake City apartment prompted a visit from the bomb squad this week after it was mistaken for a potential explosive device. Police partially evacuated the apartment complex in which it was found “out of an abundance of caution” and called ...

View more: Audi timing belt tensioner prompts Utah bomb squad visit

2023 GMC Sierra HD 2500 and 3500 will get more expensive

GMC Sierra HD pickups are about to get more expensive again after recently becoming more expensive, according to GM Authority. In July, GMC and Buick raised the prices on certain vehicles in their lineups anywhere from $975 to $1,675 by making the previously optional OnStar a standard feature. Next ...

View more: 2023 GMC Sierra HD 2500 and 3500 will get more expensive

Our week with EVs: Recapping the diverse collection of electric cars we tested

Mercedes-Benz EQB First Drive Review: Next electric Benz is a little different 2022 Chevy Bolt EV Road Test Review: Time to play EV, gas or airplane 2023 Genesis GV60 Road Test Review: The third of Hyundai Group’s E-GMP EVs is the fastest, but softest It may be hard to ...

View more: Our week with EVs: Recapping the diverse collection of electric cars we tested

Europe car sales lowest since 1996 after 12-month decline

BERLIN – Europe registered the lowest number of new passenger cars in the month of June this year since 1996 at just over 1.06 million vehicles, with some carmakers seeing sales drop by nearly 50%, data from Europe’s automobile association showed on Friday. Volkswagen Group was the hardest-hit major ...

View more: Europe car sales lowest since 1996 after 12-month decline

More Than Just A Carmaker: Toyota Motor PH Launches Toyota Mobility Solutions

Automotive industry leader, Toyota Motor Philippines Corporation (TMP) inaugurated today Toyota Mobility Solutions Philippines, Inc. (TMSPH), a wholly owned subsidiary that will be a provider of mobility-related services. TMSPH ventures into the development and offering of a range of ‘new mobility solutions’ that will enhance Toyota as a brand ...

View more: More Than Just A Carmaker: Toyota Motor PH Launches Toyota Mobility Solutions

'F1 22' feels fast and familiar | Gaming Roundup

‘F1 22’ impressions ‘Construction Simulator’ is launching Sept. 20 Autoblog may receive a share from purchases made via links on this page. Pricing and availability are subject to change. This week in racing game news: ‘F1 22’ impressions At its core, “F1 22,” the latest installment in the F1 ...

View more: 'F1 22' feels fast and familiar | Gaming Roundup

Watch a single-engine plane crash-land on 91 Freeway in California

A single-engine Piper Cherokee airplane was forced to crash land on the 91 Freeway in California after losing power about 45 minutes outside of Los Angeles. Yes, that means this was a very busy highway, practically bursting at the seams with traffic. No, amazingly nobody died, either in the ...

View more: Watch a single-engine plane crash-land on 91 Freeway in California

Ford files 'Mustang Dark Horse' trademark application

Make adventures more comfortable with high-quality Jeep grab handles

New Lucid Air variant to debut & Stealth Look to be on display during Monetary Car Week

Chevy offers incentives to prevent Corvette Z06 flipping

Average U.S. gas price falls below $4/gallon

German court: SUV driver must pay more than a car for running red light

Australian vehicle crash tests to include underwater performance

Toyota C-HR rumored to get revamp next year and an EV version

Geely's electric Zeekr 009 is an EV Alphard we never had; 700 km, 542 PS, top speed 190 km/h

A Newey, Brawn and Anderson row that shows F1 doesn’t change

Sorry, EV buyers, you won't get to pick your own pedestrian safety sounds

There won't be enough copper to meet climate goals, study indicates

OTHER CAR NEWS

; Top List in the World https://www.pinterest.com/newstopcar/pins/
Top Best Sushi Restaurants in SeoulTop Best Caribbean HoneymoonsTop Most Beautiful Islands in PeruTop Best Outdoor Grill BrandsTop Best Global Seafood RestaurantsTop Foods to Boost Your Immune SystemTop Best Foods to Fight HemorrhoidsTop Foods That Pack More Potassium Than a BananaTop Best Healthy Foods to Gain Weight FastTop Best Cosmetic Brands in the U.STop Best Destinations for Food Lovers in EuropeTop Best Foods High in Vitamin ATop Best Foods to Lower Your Blood SugarTop Best Things to Do in LouisianaTop Best Cities to Visit in New YorkTop Best Makeup Addresses In PennsylvaniaTop Reasons to Visit NorwayTop Most Beautiful Islands In The WorldTop Best Law Universities in the WorldTop Richest Sportsmen In The WorldTop Biggest Aquariums In The WorldTop Best Peruvian Restaurants In MiamiTop Best Road Trips From MiamiTop Best Places to Visit in MarylandTop Best Places to Visit in North CarolinaTop Best Electric Cars For KidsTop Best Swedish Brands in The USTop Best Skincare Brands in AmericaTop Best American Lipstick BrandsTop Michelin-starred Restaurants in MiamiTop Best Secluded Getaways From MiamiTop Best Things To Do On A Rainy Day In MiamiTop Most Instagrammable Places In MiamiTop Interesting Facts about FlorenceTop Facts About The First Roman Emperor - AugustusTop Best Japanese FoodsTop Most Beautiful Historical Sites in IsraelTop Best Places To Visit In Holy SeeTop Best Hawaiian IslandsTop Reasons to Visit PortugalTop Best Hotels In L.A. With Free Wi-FiTop Best Scenic Drives in MiamiTop Best Vegan Restaurants in BerlinTop Most Interesting Attractions In WalesTop Health Benefits of a Vegan DietTop Best Thai Restaurant in Las VegasTop Most Beautiful Forests in SwitzerlandTop Best Global Universities in GermanyTop Most Beautiful Lakes in GuyanaTop Best Things To Do in IdahoTop Things to Know Before Traveling to North MacedoniaTop Best German Sunglasses BrandsTop Highest Mountains In FranceTop Biggest Hydroelectric Plants in AmericaTop Best Spa Hotels in NYCTop The World's Scariest BridgeTop Largest Hotels In AmericaTop Most Famous Festivals in JordanTop Best European Restaurants in MunichTop Best Japanese Hiking Boot BrandsTop Best Universities in PolandTop Best Tips for Surfing the Web Safely and AnonymouslyTop Most Valuable Football Clubs in EuropeTop Highest Mountains In ColombiaTop Real-Life Characters of Texas RisingTop Best Beaches in GuatelamaTop Things About DR Congo You Should KnowTop Best Korean Reality & Variety ShowsTop Best RockstarsTop Most Beautiful Waterfalls in GermanyTop Best Fountain Pen Ink BrandsTop Best European Restaurants in ChicagoTop Best Fighter Jets in the WorldTop Best Three-Wheel MotorcyclesTop Most Beautiful Lakes in ManitobaTop Best Dive Sites in VenezuelaTop Best Websites For Art StudentsTop Best Japanese Instant Noodle BrandsTop Best Comedy Manhwa (Webtoons)Top Best Japanese Sunglasses BrandsTop Most Expensive Air Jordan SneakersTop Health Benefits of CucumberTop Famous Universities in SwedenTop Most Popular Films Starring Jo Jung-sukTop Interesting Facts about CougarsTop Best Hospitals for Hip Replacement in the USATop Most Expensive DefendersTop Health Benefits of GooseberriesTop Health Benefits of ParsnipsTop Best Foods and Drinks in LondonTop Health Benefits of Rosehip TeaTop Best Air Fryers for Low-fat CookingTop Most Asked Teacher Interview Questions with AnswersTop Best Shopping Malls in ZurichTop The Most Beautiful Botanical Gardens In L.A.Top Best Mexican Restaurants in Miami for Carb-loading rightTop Best Energy Companies in GermanyTop Best Garage HeatersTop Largest Banks in IrelandTop Leading Provider - Audit and Assurance In The USTop Best Jewelry Brands in IndiaTop Prettiest Streets in the UKTop Best Lakes to Visit in TunisiaTop Highest Mountains in Israel