In another example of how much US solar manufacturing has gone from small potatoes to a giant industry since Joe Biden took office in 2021, here’s a whopper of a stat: solar manufacturing capex in the USA has exploded from $150 million in 2020 to an estimated $2.5 billion in 2026. Much of that is thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act of 2020, which stimulated the biggest new investment in US manufacturing ever, and much of it focused on cleantech industries like the solar industry. Additionally, tariffs have put more pressure on the industry to build out more of a supply chain in the United States.”The constant threat of anti-dumping and countervailing duties has altered procurement strategies for domestic module assemblers. Relying on imported components from traditional Southeast Asian hubs is increasingly viewed as a high-risk long-term strategy, pushing capital toward domestic cell capacity,” pv magazine summarizes. “Despite the downstream momentum, upstream structural bottlenecks persist. Polysilicon remains a constraint for the domestic value chain, given that establishing new polysilicon refinement capacity involves significantly higher capital intensity and longer construction timelines than expanding module assembly lines.” Well, you can’t do everything at once. But increasing localization and domestic production is the clear trend. We’ll see where things go, but I don’t expect the trend will turn around anytime soon. As noted above, there’s too much risk in relying on open trade policies, and there are still a ton of incentives in the US to manufacture products here.
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