a Substack subscription, on Patreon, or on Stripe. Help us produce all of the high-quality, original content we publish week after weekdespite the challenges of content-scraping AI, antisocial media, inflation, and other hurdles. The cost of diesel fuel rose nearly 33% from 2025 to 2026, with some countries experiencing even higher price spikes. For many of the world’s rural farmers, processors, and small businesses, solar-powered equipment offers an attractive alternative. On a dry hillside in Chamwino, central Tanzania, mango farmers used to watch their trees struggle through the long months without rain. Irrigation was technically possible: A diesel pump could lift water from a nearby borehole. But in practice, fuel was too expensive and too unpredictable for smallholders to run the system often enough. When diesel prices rose, farmers irrigated less, production dropped, and most households stayed locked into low-yield farming and razor-thin margins. In 2021, a solar-powered pump and drip irrigation system replaced the diesel setup as part of a pilot project. Within one season, farmers reported that their mango production and average income from mango sales roughly doubled, as farmers could irrigate beyond the rainy season and manage their orchards more intensively. The technology change was simple—solar instead of diesel. But for farmers, it meant shifting from a fuel prone to wild price swings to an energy source they could rely on and afford. Chamwino is not an isolated case. Across Africa and other regions, farmers, processors, and rural businesses are among the most exposed to diesel price spikes, like those happening right now. Because diesel powers irrigation pumps, generators, mills, and refrigerators, every price jump shows up as higher operating costs, thinner margins, and greater risk. Distributed clean energy is emerging as one of the most practical ways to break that dependence. Energy Access Without Energy Security While access to electricity has expanded significantly over the last 10 years, the reality is that diesel still powers much of rural life in places like sub-Saharan Africa. Only 33% of the rural population can access electricity. Even among those with power connections, frequent outages and poor quality have led farmers, processors, retailers, mines and telecommunications companies to rely on diesel generators for backup or primary power. An Energy for Growth Hub study estimated that 150–190 gigawatts (GW) of distributed diesel generator capacity was operating across Africa in 2024, compared with 268 GW of grid-connected capacity. Removing South Africa from the equation, Sub-Saharan Africa had nearly 1.5 times as much diesel generator capacity as grid-connected capacity. And diesel capacity exceeded grid capacity in at least 26 African countries. WRI. The war on Iran has exposed the vulnerability created by this “shadow power system.” The average global retail diesel price exceeded $1.50 per liter in the second quarter of 2026, 20% higher than the previous three months and 32.9% higher than a year earlier. In Africa, retail diesel prices rose by 25% on average across 42 countries between mid-January and mid-June 2026. The regional average masks sharp differences between countries. In some, subsidies, tax cuts, and administered fuel prices have cushioned consumers from rising international prices, but at a cost to government budgets, especially in fuel-importing economies with limited fiscal space. Elsewhere, consumers have faced much larger increases at the pump. Diesel prices increased by 86% in Nigeria and more than 50% in Tanzania and Ethiopia from January to June 2026. WRI. The effects extend beyond the cost of running generators. Diesel powers agricultural machinery, irrigation pumps, mills and refrigerators. Diesel-fueled road transport connects farms with suppliers and consumer markets. The impacts of the Iran conflict are already rippling through interconnected energy, fertilizer, trade and logistics networks, raising the costs of agricultural production and food distribution across Africa and elsewhere. Fertilizer prices have increased by 30-45% in several African markets since the conflict began, increasing the risk that farmers will reduce application rates, switch to other crops or miss their planting windows. The effects are felt most acutely at the local level. For example, members of a women’s groundnut processing cooperative in Nigeria reported that rising fuel and fertilizer costs increased the price of raw groundnuts and groundnut oil by 33%. In Myanmar, which imports more than 90% of its fuel and relies predominantly on road transport, higher diesel prices have increased the cost of moving food and agricultural inputs, and have led to rising rice prices for consumers. Clean Energy Can Provide Affordable and Reliable Power We already have better alternatives. Many locations are struggling with diesel-based irrigation, cooling and backup power, but solar and other distributed renewables can provide more affordable and reliable electricity than diesel-dependent systems. The shift is already gaining momentum. In Africa, 17 GW of solar capacity will be installed in 2026 — a 45% increase from 2025, equivalent to approximately 100,000 panels installed each day. Much of the recent growth is happening outside large power plants: Roughly three-quarters of Africa’s solar growth between 2023 and 2025 came from distributed systems, as households and businesses sought alternatives to unreliable supply and diesel generation. WRI. Source Ember. The benefits are already visible for some who have made the switch. Ethiopia’s Berbere district, or woreda, is surrounded by four rivers, yet for years farmers could not use that water for irrigation. Limited access to electricity and the high cost and unreliability of petrol and diesel made pumping water from rivers to fields impractical, keeping production closely tied to rain-fed maize and teff. In 2025, WRI and partners installed two solar-powered water pumps to lift river water to irrigated plots. In the first production season, households involved in the project earned an average $709 from onion cultivation alone, compared with around $207 annually from maize and teff before the solar-powered pumps were installed. Farmers also reported being able to harvest more than once a year, plant surplus crops such as onions and chilies to increase their incomes, and make new investments in livestock and home improvements. Similarly, when Kenya experienced its longest nationwide power blackout in 2023, one Nairobi hospital maintained critical services thanks to its solar-plus-battery storage system. For rural clinics and county hospitals, similar systems can ensure power even when the grid fails, without tying budgets to volatile fuel prices and expensive back-up diesel generators. Expanding Clean Power in Africa’s Rural Communities There’s huge potential for distributed clean energy to further break diesel dependence and improve livelihoods in places like rural Africa and elsewhere. Energy Access Explorer, an open online geospatial platform hosted by the WRI Polsky Energy Center, lets planners examine solar potential alongside grid networks, health facilities, schools, and farming communities. Bringing these layers together can help governments and practitioners identify where clean power could cost-effectively serve livelihoods and services that currently depend on diesel. WRI. For example, Energy Access Explorer is already informing electrification planning in Ethiopia. The Ministry of Water and Energy, working with the World Bank, has used the platform to prioritize off-grid electrification through a results-based financing program. Our latest analysis reveals that about 12.6 million people in Ethiopia live in areas with high agricultural activity and high solar potential, but little access to grid-connected electricity. These areas could be assessed for solar-powered irrigation, processing, cooling and other services that could benefit from distributed clean power. A Uganda analysis applies the same approach to health services. The map below shows 243 health facilities and approximately 4.6 million people living in areas with limited or no connection to electricity. Yet these areas do receive abundant sunlight, making them suitable for solar power. Used alongside data on facility electricity demand, existing supply reliability, and roof or land availability, the maps can help prioritize clean power investments for rural health services. As diesel prices continue to swing wildly with every conflict and crisis, farmers, processors, and rural businesses pay the price, alongside governments that try to keep costs low through subsidies. It’s time for energy ministers, donors and financiers to look closely at where distributed clean power can viably replace diesel and direct their investments there. The latest Tracking SDG 7 report estimates that $21 billion is needed by 2030 to provide off-grid solar to the 398 million people for whom it is the least-cost electricity option—approximately 6 times the sector’s recent investment level! Moving from energy crisis to energy security is ultimately about knowing where clean energy truly changes livelihoods. For many of the world’s rural farmers, processors, and small businesses, that starts with swapping diesel for solar. Courtesy of WRI. Energy Access Explorer This article is informed by research and insights from the WRI Polsky Center for the Global Energy Transition. The Center harnesses analytical power, convening ability, and global expertise to help orchestrate a transition to a clean, abundant, affordable, and reliable energy future by overcoming critical barriers.
Liked by Amelia Tremblay, Grace Wilson
Liked by Amelia Tremblay, Grace Wilson
Liked by Amelia Tremblay, Grace Wilson