China’s CPCA Secretary-General Cui Dongshu published a Q1 2026 lithium battery demand analysis report. The data shows total lithium battery demand reached 354.82 million kWh in Q1 2026, up 43% year-on-year. Exports accounted for over 65% of total demand for the first time, becoming the dominant growth driver. Lithium battery overall demand Specifically, customs data shows standalone battery exports hit 192.92 million kWh, surging 76% YoY and representing 54% of total demand. New energy vehicle exports carried a combined 40.15 million kWh of batteries (34.84 million kWh for passenger vehicles, 5.31 million kWh for commercial vehicles), jumping 105% YoY. The two export categories combined exceeded 65% of total demand, directly powering the industry’s overall growth. Battery demand for new energy passenger vehicle exports The broader trend shows explosive growth in NEV passenger vehicle export battery demand from 2022 through 2026. Looking back, 2022-2024 saw low-base fluctuations. 2025 marked the entry into scaled growth, with full-year export battery demand surpassing 96.12 million kWh, up 60% YoY. Monthly demand stabilized in the 5-10 million kWh range, with year-end peaks breaking 10 million kWh. 2023-2026 new energy passenger vehicle export volume trend Q1 2026 data exceeded expectations, with all three months topping 10 million kWh. March alone reached 12.95 million kWh, up over 125% YoY. The domestic market, however, showed clear divergence. NEV passenger vehicle retail battery demand stood at 92.01 million kWh, down 6% YoY and representing just 26% of total demand. Commercial vehicle replacement (insurance) demand reached 29.73 million kWh, up 39% YoY, providing stable support for the domestic market. Lithium battery kilowatt-hour capacity trend for new energy passenger vehicle retail sales Over the longer term, battery installation volumes rose steadily from 2022 through 2025. But Q1 2026 marked the first YoY contraction, with cumulative retail demand of 92.01 million kWh down 6%. March saw both YoY and MoM growth turn negative, signaling the domestic market’s shift from rapid adoption to stock competition. NEV commercial vehicle export battery demand grew steadily, with 2025 peaks exceeding 2 million kWh. Q1 2026 maintained momentum at 1.86 million, 1.82 million, and 1.64 million kWh respectively — well above prior-year levels and serving as a supplementary support for battery exports. 2023-2026 lithium battery trend for new energy passenger vehicle retail sales Overall, battery export demand stands in stark contrast to the domestic market, showing explosive growth. Industry scale leaped from under 20 million kWh monthly in 2022 to peaks exceeding 60 million kWh in 2025. Q1 2026 sustained the momentum at 57.59 million, 53.65 million, and 81.68 million kWh, with March’s YoY growth nearing 100%. Customs exports The report attributes this to two main factors. First, expanding overseas NEV markets and surging energy storage demand continue to drive orders for power and storage batteries. Second, some companies front-loaded exports ahead of policy adjustments, pushing March data sharply higher.
