++ The interview from IAA Transportation is available as a video in German. You can activate subtitles on YouTube. ++
The electrification of heavy-duty transport is reshaping the competitive landscape in the commercial vehicle industry. At the IAA Transportation in Hanover, not only did established European manufacturers showcase their latest electric trucks, but so too did numerous new suppliers from Asia and other regions. For Johanna Braun, Policy Manager for E-Mobility Freight & Infrastructure at the environmental organisation Transport & Environment (T&E), this growing competition serves as a warning signal to the European industry.
In a study, T&E compared the electric trucks of new competitors with those of European manufacturers. The result: technologically, the vehicles are largely on a par. “They are essentially just as good,” Braun told electrive. The decisive difference, however, lies in the costs. Over a five-year period, accounting for purchase and operation, the vehicles from new competitors are around 10 per cent cheaper.
According to Braun, this is due in part to economies of scale, particularly among Chinese manufacturers, who already produce larger volumes in their home market. Additionally, there are differing production strategies: while European manufacturers traditionally focus on individually configured commercial vehicles, some new suppliers are placing greater emphasis on standardised models and correspondingly more efficient mass production.
The new competitors aim to achieve a market share of up to 25 per cent in Europe, according to the T&E study. Braun emphasises, however, that this reflects the ambitions of the manufacturers rather than a confirmed market forecast. Nevertheless, established companies should take the threat seriously. Even their well-developed service and sales networks are not a permanent safeguard against new competition. “It is an advantage they still have now, but it will diminish,” warns Braun.
Easing fleet emission limits: the wrong strategy?
Against this backdrop, Braun is particularly critical of European commercial vehicle manufacturers’ demands to relax the EU’s CO₂ fleet emission limits for heavy-duty vehicles. The industry has made significant development efforts and now offers compelling electric models. The focus now, she argues, should be on bringing these vehicles to market in larger numbers.
“In principle, European manufacturers should really step up their efforts now,” Braun urges. Otherwise, there is a risk of “losing their own home market to competitors from outside.”
The apparent contradiction is clear: while new market entrants are seizing electrification as an opportunity, easing regulatory requirements could reduce pressure on established manufacturers to bring their electric vehicles to market more quickly.
Braun explicitly acknowledges that European manufacturers have already made significant upfront investments. The real issue now, she says, is less about the vehicle offerings and more about demand. The still-high purchase costs are making investment decisions difficult for haulage and logistics companies. Additional uncertainty about political frameworks is reinforcing this hesitation.
This does not only affect vehicle manufacturers: if CO₂ requirements are weakened, Braun believes this could also slow down the expansion of charging infrastructure. After all, operators of public charging parks need to be confident that enough electric trucks will be on the roads in the future to make their investments economically viable.
Charging infrastructure: range changes the equation
Braun also advocates for a nuanced perspective on charging infrastructure. While the charging network for electric commercial vehicles must continue to expand, she argues that the current infrastructure is sufficient for the existing vehicle fleet. Moreover, the majority of electric trucks are not charged at public fast-charging parks anyway.
“We know that 70 to 80 per cent of vehicles will charge at depots,” explains Braun. Accordingly, the expansion of charging infrastructure at company premises is crucial.
Technological progress in vehicles is also a factor. At IAA Transportation, electric trucks with ranges of 650 to 700 km were already on display. For many use cases, this means a full shift can be completed without intermediate charging. This reduces, at least for part of the heavy-duty transport sector, the dependence on public charging infrastructure.
Braun is critical of the repeated portrayal of insufficient charging infrastructure as a fundamental obstacle to electric heavy-duty transport. Such debates, she warns, could create additional uncertainty among potential buyers and delay investments.
At the same time, operating costs are becoming an increasingly important purchasing argument. High diesel prices hit logistics companies particularly hard, as fuel accounts for a significant portion of their operating costs. Electrification could therefore become an increasingly attractive option for many companies for economic reasons as well.
For Braun, it is clear that the transformation can only succeed with reliable frameworks. Instead of constant discussions about alternative drivetrain technologies and regulatory exemptions, the industry needs a clear direction.
“We need trust. We need clarity, and we need a clear path,” she summarises her demands. Her final appeal to politicians and industry is correspondingly concise: “No more hesitation!”
In the video interview, Johanna Braun explains her assessment of the competition with new electric truck manufacturers, the future of European CO₂ fleet emission limits, and the role of charging infrastructure in scaling up electric heavy-duty transport.
++ The interview from IAA Transportation is available as a video in German. You can activate subtitles on YouTube. ++
