- Compare the specs of all the premium minivans
- Honda Odyssey: 1,566, down 56 per cent
- Kia Carnival: 1,633, down 55 per cent
- Chrysler Grand Caravan: 2,879, up 19 per cent
- Toyota Sienna: 4,862, down 48 per cent
- Chrysler Pacifica: 5,989, up 53 per cent
- Timothy Cain
You don’t want a new minivan. Your neighbour, the hockey mom of five, doesn’t want a new minivan. Your cousin, a tradesperson parent of three, doesn’t want a new minivan.
And even if all three of you did, in fact, want to buy a new minivan, none of you would actually be able to secure a quick and easy purchase or lease of a new minivan from one of four participating manufacturers. Yes, four. Four manufacturers, five brands, five largely unavailable vans.
Almost all previous competitors in Canada’s minivan segment have fled the scene. Included on the list of brands that participated in the minivan craze just prior to the Great Recession but no longer play ball in the sliding-door arena are Buick, Chevrolet, Ford, Hyundai, Mazda, Nissan, Oldsmobile, Pontiac, and Saturn. Volkswagen hopped in, as well, before quickly sliding through the escape hatch.
Little wonder. The writing was on the wall. The type of buyers who flocked to minivans in the 1980s and 1990s, when replicated by the next generation of parents in the 2000s and 2010s, veered instead toward SUVs and crossovers. With fewer children — Canada’s birth rate declined 20 per cent between 1980 and 2020 — they don’t even all require three-row utility vehicles. Five seats may well suffice.
The result is a Canadian minivan sector that produced nearly 185,000 sales in 2004 before declining in each of the following seven years. Minivan sales actually fell 51 per cent between 2004 and 2013. Between 2013 and 2021, minivan volume plunged a further 63 per cent.
And in 2022, minivan sales have declined another 42 per cent, year-over-year. In fact, minivan sales in 2004 were roughly eight times stronger than they are today. In the first nine months of 2022, only 16,930 minivans were sold in total, encompassing all brands. Only half a decade ago, Dodge would sell that many Grand Caravans in roughly four months.
There’s a seemingly endless list of ways to describe just how the mighty minivan has fallen, not the least of which is the fact that minivans now account for only 1.5 per cent of 2022’s Canadian market, down from 4.3 per cent five years ago, 5.8 per cent 10 years ago, and 8.8 per cent 15 years ago.
Compare the specs of all the premium minivans
As recently as 2017, a minivan (the Dodge Grand Caravan) was among Canada’s 10 top-selling vehicles. In 2012, a minivan ranked among the top five. In 2007, a minivan ranked among the three best-selling vehicles in the country. In 2022, the best-selling minivan in Canada isn’t actually among the 50 leading nameplates.
In other words, by way of a perfect storm that pairs limited availability with limited demand, Canada’s minivan sector is collapsing. But what’s happening inside Canada’s failing minivan sector? Here’s a look at every MPV’s performance through the first three-quarters of 2022.
Honda Odyssey: 1,566, down 56 per cent
Honda is getting Odysseys out to dealers to some degree; those dealers just happen to be in the United States. Through 2022’s first nine months, Odyssey deliveries were 20 times stronger in the U.S. than in Canada, dramatically different than the 10-to-1 pre-pandemic norm. With limited scope for meaningful volume, Honda has instead chosen to limit Odyssey buyers to Odysseys with healthier profit margins. Gone is the LX and its sub-$35K base price; in its place is a $45K+ Odyssey lineup that starts at the EX level. Just how quickly has the Odyssey fallen from grace? In 2018, the first year for the latest generation of Honda’s van, Odyssey sales averaged nearly 1,000 units per month. Honda is now selling fewer than 200 per month.
2022 Kia Carnival Photo by Jay Kana
Kia Carnival: 1,633, down 55 per cent
Including leftover Sedonas, Kia minivan sales are actually down 57 per cent in 2022, the worst decline of any participating automaker. The Carnival emphasizes style, luxury, and technology to a degree the Sedona never even remotely attempted. At first, buyers took to it. In 2021, 4,125 Carnivals were sold despite scarce inventory. Demand didn’t entirely dry up, but with 2022’s worsening availability, Kia’s share of the minivan sector slid three points to 10 per cent so far this year.
Chrysler Grand Caravan: 2,879, up 19 per cent
The Grand Caravan’s picture can be confusing. In 2021’s first nine months, there were 8,515 Grand Caravans sold in Canada, but 6,091 were previous-generation Dodges. In 2022, the Grand Caravan’s 2,879 sales reflect a 19-per-cent uptick in Chrysler Grand Caravan sales, but a 66-per-cent drop in entry-level Stellantis minivan sales overall. In fact, while both this nameplate and its premium sibling’s year-over-year performances appear positive, total Chrysler/Dodge minivan volume is down 29 per cent from 2021 levels. And compared to the budget-priced Grand Caravan performance of years past? During a 10-year span between 2010 and 2019, an average of 3,864 Grand Caravans were sold in Canada. Per month.
2022 Toyota Sienna Photo by Toyota
Toyota Sienna: 4,862, down 48 per cent
Available all-wheel drive, hybrid fuel efficiency, and seven or eight-passenger seating provide major appeal for the fourth-generation Toyota Sienna, a van that traditionally held huge sway in Canada’s non-budget/non-Grand Caravan minivan market. In 2019, for example, despite the old age of the third-gen Sienna, the Toyota outsold Honda’s Odyssey by a 58-per-cent margin and the Kia Sedona by nearly three-to-one. Siennas, however, are few and far between in 2022. Fewer and farther between than even the limited number of actual minivan buyers that exist these days.
Chrysler Pacifica: 5,989, up 53 per cent
It shouldn’t be surprising to find a product of Auburn Hills, the Chrysler Pacifica, leading Canada’s minivan segment. Even when competitors were plentiful, 4 out of every 10 minivans sold in Canada in 2007 were Dodges and Chryslers. By 2012, the tag-team collected nearly 6 out of every 10 minivan sales. Of course, market share — Chrysler currently owns 52 per cent of the Canadian minivan sector — means something very different when the market has fallen off a cliff.
Timothy Cain
See More Articles From This Author
Keyword: Driving By Numbers: The minivan sales crisis