Between 2005 and 2022, car and motorcycle theft rates in South African cities dropped anywhere from 65% to 83%, depending on the location, South African Cities Network’s (SACN) latest State of Crime report revealed.
However, the theft of vehicles still remains a particularly urban issue, with 74% of all theft incidents recorded in the country over this period being in one of the nine major metros.
Similarly, the SACN report found that 73% of all car hijackings occurred in these cities over the past 17-odd years. Between 2005 and 2011, carjackings per 100,000 people in South Africa did show an appreciable downtrend, but from 2012 onwards it saw a sharp increase in many of these municipalities.
Theft of vehicles and motorcycles
Illustrating that South Africa’s cities are the most affected by vehicle theft is the fact that the national rate of thefts sits at 62 per 100,000 people, rising to 103 per 100,000 within large urban areas.
In the past 17 years, the rates for Tshwane, eThekwini, and Johannesburg have even stayed well above the metro average at 140 per 100,000; 117 per 100,000; and 115 per 100,000, respectively.
Additionally, while thefts were on a general downtrend between 2005 and 2022, in the past year, these decreases slowed or reversed with double-digit increases in three cities of between 13% and 20%.
These were recorded for Nelson Mandela Bay (20%), Mangaung (18%), and Buffalo City (13%), while smaller increases were recorded for Johannesburg (7%), Msundusi (6%), and Cape Town (4%).
eThekwini, however, recorded a 0% change between 2020/21 and 2021/22, and Tshwane actually showed a further decrease of 8%, and Ekurhuleni by 9%.
Carjackings
Carjacking is a priority crime for the South African Police, a subcategory of the so-called “trio crimes”, and similarly to the theft of motor vehicles, the metro average of 57 carjackings per 100,000 population well over the national average of 35 per 100,000.
For the 17 years under review, Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and eThekwini’s carjacking rates have been consistently well above the national average, whereas Buffalo City (452%) and Msunduzi (187%) have experienced exponential triple-digit growth.
Over the same period, Cape Town (84%), Nelson Mandela Bay (77%), and Mangaung (54%) have experienced substantial double-digit increases. However, for this period, commendable decreases have been noted for the metros of Johannesburg (-18%), eThekwini (-17%), Tshwane (-15%), and Ekurhuleni (-12%).
The picture has grown especially concerning over the past decade, however, as sharp hikes were seen in carjacking rates for Cape Town (294%), Msunduzi (232%), Buffalo City (208%), Tshwane (78%), and Nelson Mandela Bay (75%), suggesting a cause for concern in these cities.
Johannesburg (46%), Ekurhuleni (43%), and eThekwini (16%) also experienced significant increases, with only Mangaung bucking the trend with a 52% decrease – despite a 3% increase in the past year.
Keyword: Dramatic drop in car thefts in South African cities – 2005 to 2022